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Mohamed Ben Abderrazek
| 27 seconds ago
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The future of the oil market seems to be getting darker, as Goldman Sachs anticipates an average price of $76 per barrel for the year 2025.
This forecast comes against a backdrop where crude price fluctuations are influenced by a multitude of factors, including oversupply and slowing global demand. Analysts at the American bank point out that this dynamic could have significant repercussions on economies dependent on oil exports.
Excess supply and stagnant demand
Goldman Sachs highlights an excess supply which should weigh on oil prices. Global crude production is set to exceed demand, with estimates pointing to a surplus of around 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025.
This imbalance is partly attributed to stagnant demand in China, the result of an economic slowdown and a transition to more sustainable energy sources, such as electric vehicles. At the same time, excess production capacity maintained by OPEC+ could also influence this situation, thereby limiting potential price increases.
Implications for African economies
The anticipated drop in oil prices could have profound consequences for several African countries whose economies rely heavily on oil revenues. Nations like Nigeria and Angola, where oil accounts for a significant share of exports and tax revenues, could face painful fiscal adjustments.
The World Bank has already warned that forecasts of low prices could lead to significant budget deficits for these countries, affecting their ability to finance infrastructure projects and maintain economic stability.
Uncertain outlook
Despite these pessimistic forecasts, some analysts note that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could further alter the oil market landscape.
Although Goldman Sachs believes geopolitical risks are currently limited, any escalation in the region could tighten the balance between supply and demand, leading to a temporary rise in prices. Recent events, including ongoing conflicts and their potential impact on oil infrastructure, add a layer of uncertainty to these forecasts.
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