Tobacco: will the price of cigarette packs increase in 2025?

Smoking is getting more and more expensive. As of January 1, 2024, the selling prices of tobacco products saw a further increase: on average 40 to 50 cents for a pack of 20 cigarettes, and even up to 1 or even 1.50 euros for certain brands, thus crossing the threshold. bar of 12 euros. A new increase then took place on June 1, 2024. This, however, had nothing to do with the State since it was a decision by certain manufacturers wishing to increase their margin.

Should we now expect a further increase in the price of packages on January 1st? The debate agitates Parliament. On Wednesday, November 27, seven deputies and seven senators meeting within the joint committee (CMP) reversed course on one of the measures voted a week earlier in the Senate as part of the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS): the acceleration of the increase in the price of a pack of cigarettes.

The government and the opposing senators

The amendment adopted on November 21 in the Senate provided that the price of the package would reach 12.70 euros from 2025 and would remain at this level in 2027, specifies Public Senate (new window). The government, through the voice of the Minister of Health Geneviève Darrieussecq (new window)for his part opposed this amendment, recalling that the various stakeholders had already agreed on a gradual increase trajectory included in the national plan to combat tobacco 2023-2027 (new window). This, presented on November 28, 2023 by Aurélien Rousseau, then Minister of Health and Prevention, plans to gradually increase the price of a pack of 20 cigarettes to 13 euros by 2027. “If we keep changing plans, it seems a little complicated to me”justified Geneviève Darrieussecq during the debates in the Senate, believing that it was “premature” to return to this objective.

In vain: the measure adopted by the senators, supposed to bring an additional 200 million euros into the Social Security coffers from next year, was largely validated by 241 votes to 2, with a large abstention from the left which defended rather a package at 16 euros within two years.

“Weakening of flow rates”

As early as October 17, the government indicated that it did not foresee any additional price increases in 2025. “There is no further increase in the trajectory of tobacco growth in the financial bills presented by the government at the end of the year”indicated the Minister of the Budget Laurent Saint-Martin in front of the tobacconists gathered at the conference. “Gaps (price, editor’s note) too high with our European neighbors can lead to a weakening of flow rates, in particular those installed in border territories, and to the persistence of a parallel market too important”justified the minister.

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With the compromise found by parliamentarians on Wednesday during the CMP, it is therefore the trajectory adopted by the executive in the latest national plan to combat tobacco which prevails. This version of the bill must, however, be submitted for approval to the Senate and the National Assembly, starting with the Assembly on December 2. This is when Michel Barnier will probably use his first article 49.3 of the Constitution in order to avoid an unfavorable vote. The use of this article exposes it to a motion of censure that the New Popular Front will table and that the National Rally could vote on, which could take place on December 4.