the departments of Ile-de-France where prices fall the most

© Kevin Comte

– “We are observing a significant slowdown in the house market, in the outer and inner suburbs, the rural exodus is over” from the years of health crisis, analyzes Yann Pézeron, notary in Montfort-L'Amaury.

Tenants or second-time buyers Ile-de-France residentsnow is perhaps the time or never to buy an apartment or a house in the capital region. The drop in prices observed for several quarters, against a backdrop of the real estate crisis, is already running out of steam. In the inner suburbs (Hauts-de-Seine, Val-de-Marne, Seine-Saint-Denis), prices of old apartments decreased by 5.5% over one year, on average, in the third quarter of 2024, according to data published by the notaries of Greater Paris this Thursday, November 28. This is a slowdown compared to the 7.4% decline recorded in the second quarter.

And this slowdown is expected to continue in the coming months, with notaries anticipating a decline of only 2.1% prices of old apartments in the inner suburbs by January 1, 2025. It must be said that only sellers obliged to sell their property, due to death or separation, let go of the sales price, faced with buyers held back by mortgage rates still well above 3%. “The desire to buy is there but relations between buyers and sellers are tense, negotiations are long”notes Elodie Frémont, notary in Paris.

In the inner suburbs, prices three times lower than those in the capital

“The most chic towns, like Neuilly-sur-Seine and Vincennes, even have prices higher than those of the neighboring Parisian districts,” observes Thibault Gallot-Lavallée, notary in Neuilly. It is true that with a average price per square meter of 4,940 euros, almost twice lower than the 9,500 euros in the capital, a greener living environment and more recent buildings, with balconies or small gardens, the inner suburbs are well placed to benefit from the very timid improvement in the real estate market. Sales of old apartments fell again between July and September, by 11%, a drop however less than those of previous quarters.

Sales of old houses fell by only 4% in the inner suburbs. But “this is a micro market and this still shows a collapse of 44% compared to its level two years ago”before the start of the crisis, nuance Thibault Gallot-Lavallée. Prices are feeling this, falling by 5% in the third quarter, at an annual rate. But here too, notaries predict a slowdown, with a drop of 3.4% between now and January 1st.

End of the rural exodus

Even if the fall in prices is already slowing down in the inner suburbs, it is in these three departments that there are the best deals to be had for anyone wishing to buy an apartment. In the greater suburbs (Seine-et-Marne, Yvelines, Essonne, Val-d'Oise), apartment prices fell by only 4%, on average, in the third quarter. And they should only fall by… 1.4% by January 1. No doubt because they rose much lower during the prosperous post-Covid years, when everyone wanted to go green for fear of new confinements. Count on 2,810 euros per square meter to buy an apartment in Essonne, compared to 5,980 euros in Hauts-de-Seine.

Houses in the outer suburbs, on the other hand, showed price drops similar to those in the inner suburbs, of around 5% over one year, in the third quarter. “We are seeing a real slowdown in the house market, in the outer and inner suburbs, the rural exodus is over» years of health crisis, analyzes Yann Pézeron, notary in Montfort-L'Amaury (Yvelines).