Floating at an altitude of nearly 400 kilometers above Earth, the International Space Station (ISS) is a scientific research laboratory where, since its launch in 1998, more than 3700 experiences were conducted by astronauts from 23 different countries. Beyond being a technical feat, the ISS is also a unique diplomatic lever. According to the 1967 Space Treaty, astronauts are in fact considered “sent from humanity” putting aside earthly political issues for the common interest. However, the deterioration and prospect of replacement of the ISS brings geopolitical considerations to the forefront. In January 2022, the American space agency NASA formalized retirement of the ISS in 2030 because despite its resistance to time, the structure begins to present some leaks. As its maintenance costs increase, NASA would like to reallocate these funds towards space exploration beyond Earth's orbit. But the replacement for the ISS has not yet been chosen, and this retirement questions not only the future of the Western presence in outer space, but also the diplomatic issues linked to this microgravity laboratory.
The ISS is the product of a joint operation between the American (NASA), Canadian (CSA), European (ESA), Japanese (JAXA), and Russian (Roscosmos) space agencies. Thus, the station is also a crucial diplomatic tool for these countries, especially in contexts of international tensions. In 2014, Russia's annexation of Crimea caused a wave of economic and trade sanctions by Western countries. The question of maintaining cooperation within the ISS then arises, since NASA announces cut ties with Roscosmos. But such measures are finalement excluded concerning the ISS, due to a strong interdependence between the five partners who must resist terrestrial geopolitical crises. Indeed, it is Russia which provides the only means of reaching the station via the Soyuz rocket and capsule, therefore requiring cooperation so that the missions continue without hindrance.
But in recent years, certain technological and geopolitical developments have reshuffled the cards on the question of the ISS. In 2020, the private company SpaceX opened a new chapter of the ISS by offering an alternative access directly from American soil via its capsules Dragon. The following year, China completed its space station Tiangongadding a second human presence in space and becoming a new space power facing the United States. Finally, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has rekindled discomfort over this collaboration, which finds its response in the end of the ISS initially scheduled for 2024. In fact, Russia announced in 2022 that She will cease its partnership and will begin the development of his own space stationin his ambition to assert its power independently. However, the extension of the ISS to 2030 and the constraints of interdependence have pushed Roscosmos to maintain its participation until 2028which facilitates joint retirement planning.
The end of Roscosmos' contribution to the ISS concludes a Russian-American collaboration lasting more than 30 years, which began with the first space race between the United States and the Soviet Union (USSR) during the Cold war. In a context of détente between the two blocs, the rivalry had given way to common ground, after realizing that the junction of knowledge and technologies could multiply space exploration capabilities. The project Apollo-Soyuz inaugurated in July 1975 international cooperation in manned flights by astronauts and cosmonauts by docking together in orbit the respective capsules of the two powers. The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 accelerated the process, with space cooperation becoming one of the first areas of partnership between Russia and the United States, as part of the construction of a new world order. Thus, in 1993, the American president Bill Clinton invite Roscosmos to join the ISS project with European, Canadian and Japanese partners. But today, direct cooperation between several national space agencies no longer seems to be on the agenda to replace the ISS.
Faced with the emergence of national space stations from rival states, NASA wishes to reaffirm its position as an international space power. For the moment, the absence of an American replacement places the United States in a fragile situation, as the country risks finding itself temporarily without access to an orbital base.. However, a new strategy has been established: the next space station will be commercial. Indeed, the United States now depends on private companies. Including SpaceX, responsible for remove the ISS from its orbitwhile the Artemis lunar program is based on the performance of groups like Elon Musk's company, Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin, and Boeing. NASA signed contracts in 2021 with three private aerospace companies, granting them a budget of 415,6 millions de dollars (USD) to develop the future orbital structure, but for the moment no project seems to have emerged as a definitive choice. The presence of national stations facing a commercial delegation will certainly lead to an evolution of space diplomacy towards a more complex network of private and national interests facing the principle of using space for the good of humanity.
The approach of the ISS's retirement leaves room for legitimate questions about the future use of space and the distribution of power in orbit. The United States wishes to reaffirm its status in a geopolitical context where China and Russia are becoming competitors in a new space race. Their ambitions extend beyond Earth's orbit, towards the Moon and Mars, to become pioneers of space exploration. Wanting to get there first, the United States is mobilizing a considerable volume of resources to the Artemis missions et Mars exploration. Indeed, NASA gave 3.4 billion dollars (USD) to Blue Origin to develop its lunar module, while it only granted it 130 millions de dollars (USD) to develop its space station Orbital Reef. This political prioritization presents the risk of a Western human absence in Earth orbit by 2030, leaving it occupied solely by Chinese and Russian adversaries, resulting in an asymmetry of power. An ideal scenario for Western ambitions would thus be to have by 2035 an Earth orbit hosting Chinese and Russian stations, a first Indian station, and a multifunction commercial station operated by the United States to maintain a capacity for innovation in the face of to its competitors.
The post-ISS era currently presents more questions than answers. The growing rivalry between the United States and the Sino-Russian bloc is giving rise to a new space race, where Earth orbital stations are becoming pillars of the balance of power. Will the West build a replacement in time?
Edited by Camille Tavitian
Featured Image: “SpaceX’s Dragon capsule can transport astronauts to the ISS”, “SpaceX Dragon 16” of Astro_Alex (ESA) sous licence CC BY-SA 2.0.
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