After the surge in the prices of orange juice and cocoa, coffee prices are now also reaching new heights. And the bill risks being steep for consumers. In almost 50 years, Arabica has never been so expensive: the pound reached 320.10 cents this Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange. A sad record since 1977.
This increase is linked to fears over harvests in Brazil. The latter is the leading producer of Arabica, with more than 44 million 60 kg bags for 2023-2024, points out the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). However, it is the victim of a historic drought, attributed largely to global warming and the repercussions ofThe Child. A climatic phenomenon associated with heatwave episodes around the world. Added to this were large-scale fires this summer, some of them of criminal origin, particularly in the Amazon.
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An impact on shelf prices
In this context, Brazil nevertheless benefited from rains in October. The water had in fact contributed to the flowering of coffee trees in the regions producing arabica, the most aromatic, most expensive and best-selling variety. Experts are concerned, however.
The flowers must in fact succeed in attaching themselves to the branches, in order to then transform into cherries. And for good reason, it is these same fruits which contain the coffee beans, the harvest of which takes place in spring. Faced with so much uncertainty, worried farmers are slowly selling off their stock, supply is thus limited and, mechanically, world prices for arabica are increasing.
This surge will ultimately have repercussions on the portfolio. “ It is clear and clear that this will have a significant impact on the consumer. », Underlines John Plassard to AFP. Coffee giants, like Nestlé, will pass on the prices to their customers », he adds. According to Bloomberg, the company, owner of Nespresso and Nescafé, had warned that it would increase prices and reduce the size of its bags, due to the increase in costs.
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Robusta coffee impacted by droughts
Arabica is not the only variety to worry the markets. Robusta has seen its prices soar in recent months. Vietnam, the second largest producer in the world, mainly produces this other variety. However, it recorded severe heat in the spring. Enough to weigh on production for 2024-2025, the harvest taking placeOctober to April.
Listed in London, robusta trades around $5,200 per tonne. In mid-September, a tonne reached a record price of $5,829, unheard of since the opening of the current reference contract in 2008. This price would even be unprecedented since 1979, according to the Bloomberg agency.
Coffee culture still generates several billion euros. It also represents 11 million hectares cultivated for 120 million jobs according to figures from CIRAD, the Center for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development. Faced with the difficulties in the sector, the G7 countries have established the creation of a public-private fund. This project from the International Coffee Organization will first be tested in African countries, then in Central America and Asia.
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