After more than a year of cross-border hostilities and two months of open war between the Israeli army and Hezbollah, a ceasefire has come into effect. The truce, valid since Wednesday November 27 at 4 a.m., must interrupt this conflagration which occurred in the wake of the attacks of October 7, 2023 in Israel, the pro-Iranian armed Lebanese militia ensuring response to the shelling of the Gaza Strip, in support to Hamas. Negotiated under the leadership of the United States and France, but without Hezbollah, which called on the head of the Lebanese Parliament Nabih Berri to negotiate on its behalf, the agreement updates Resolution 1701 of the Security Council of the UN. This resolution put an end to the conflict between Hezbollah and the Jewish state in 2006.
At least 3,823 people have been killed in Lebanon in 13 months of conflict and hundreds of thousands more have fled the fighting. On the Israeli side, nearly 120 people, including 47 civilians, were killed in clashes with Hezbollah and tens of thousands of residents had to flee the north of the country. Will this agreement succeed in establishing lasting peace between the two parties?
Hezbollah gives way to the Lebanese army in South Lebanon
On Tuesday evening, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomed a “diplomatic resolution” Who “will allow tens of thousands of Lebanese and Israeli civilians to return home safely on both sides of the border and end the violence and destruction caused by this conflict”. Under the agreement, Hezbollah forces are to withdraw from southern Lebanon, so that the Lebanese army takes control of the border area with Israel. “What remains of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed… to threaten Israel's security again”declared US President Joe Biden.
Thus, according to the points of the agreement listed by The Orient-the day, “the sale, supply or production of weapons and related materials in Lebanon will be supervised by the Lebanese government”, while “unauthorized facilities related to the production of weapons and related materials” et “all infrastructure and military positions not in compliance with these commitments” will be dismantled.
The agreement gives 60 days to the Israeli army for se withdraw from the border area between the two countries, time to allow the Lebanese army and the peacekeepers of UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) to deploy as interposition forces.
Ceasefire monitoring first attributed to France and the United States
According to the agreement, a committee approved by Israel and Lebanon will be created to oversee and assist in the implementation of the ceasefire. In the meantime, Washington and Paris,maneuvered to achieve this diplomatic victory, are committed to ensuring that the agreement is “implemented in its entirety”, saccording to a joint press release from the American and French presidents, Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron. On the franceinfo set Wednesday morning, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noël Barrot, detailed that this mission would be done with the support of the Blue Helmets of the French contingent of UNIFIL, i.e. “700 French soldiers”, as well as in “strengthening the Lebanese armed forces”, he continued.
Because in reality, the Lebanese army does not have “not many means” to act as a buffer between the Shiite movement and the Israeli army, notes the vice-president of the Institute for Research and Studies on the Mediterranean and the Middle East, Agnès Levallois, cited by AFP. “Concretely, how will things happen if there is a problem?”she asks, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced, just before giving the green light, that Israel would keep “complete freedom of military action” in Lebanon, committing to attack “if Hezbollah violates the agreement and attempts to rearm.”
As soon as the ceasefire took effect at dawn, residents of southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Plain began returning to their villages. However, the Israeli army immediately warned the inhabitants of southern Lebanon not to approach the positions where it remains deployed. “You are prohibited from heading towards villages that the IDF [l’armée israélienne] ordered to evacuate or towards IDF forces in the area”, said army spokesperson Avichay Adraee in a message published on X. In a speech to the Lebanese on Wednesday, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati asked Israel to “respect” ceasefire and withdraw from border areas.
The duration of the ceasefire, uncertain, will depend on the restoration of Lebanese power
According to Joe Biden, the truce agreement was designed to bring about a permanent cessation of hostilities between the two parties. But “considerable work lies ahead to ensure that the agreement endures”, warned Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, the UN representative for Lebanon, on Tuesday evening. He “marks the starting point of a critical process” to ensure the safety of civilians on both sides of the blue line, this demarcation line set by the UN between Lebanon and Israel, she added.
But for the hope of peace to materialize, it will be necessary to resolve “the basic problem” : the one “of Lebanese sovereignty”, analysis on franceinfo Karim Emile Bitar, professor of international relations at Saint-Joseph University in Beirut. “Hezbollah has been considerably weakened but it is still a dominant force in Lebanon. It retains its blocking capacity, its nuisance capacity”he explains. While the government appears powerless in the face of the conflict which is undermining its territory and the country remains without head of state since the departure of Michel Aoun in 2022, entrusting border security to the Lebanese army requires that the latter be supported by all the legitimacy of the state.
From all sides, voices were raised on Wednesday to demand that the election of the President of the Republic be organized quickly. Considering that the success or otherwise of the agreement was “the responsibility of the Lebanese authorities and of all those who exercise eminent political responsibilities”, Emmanuel Macron said in a video message that “the restoration of the sovereignty of Lebanon passes[ait] by the immediate election of a President of the Republic. In a televised speech, a few hours after the ceasefire came into force, the President of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berri, leader of the influential Shiite Amal movement, an ally of Hezbollah, called on the Lebanese to “unity” national and spoke out in favor “to hasten the election of a President of the Republic”.
Related News :