“It’s an unexpected return for French diplomacy. Lebanon is rehabilitating France's role in the Middle East,” summarizes Hasni Abidi, director of the Center for Studies on the Arab and Mediterranean World in Geneva. A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect early Wednesday in Lebanon, after more than a year of cross-border hostilities and two months of open warfare between the Israeli army and the armed Lebanese movement backed by Iran.
“For France, it’s a success,” adds Agnès Levallois, vice-president of the Institute for Research and Studies on the Mediterranean and the Middle East, recalling the cold shower of September where a similar initiative had was torpedoed at the last moment by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Emmanuel Macron, who was then very involved alongside the United States during the United Nations General Assembly, “really took it as a slap in the face. »
French people active in negotiations
The French have since remained actively engaged in the negotiations, in concert with the Americans, even if the Israelis “wanted to get them out,” underlines a French source close to the matter.
The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, whose relations with the French president are notoriously tense, also, on Tuesday evening, first of all thanked the American Joe Biden “for his involvement” in the truce. The outgoing tenant of the White House, on the other hand, praised his French counterpart for “his partnership” in the negotiations between Israel and Hezbollah.
The strength of long-standing diplomatic contacts
According to several sources, Americans and Lebanese insisted that France remain in the game due in particular to its contacts with the Lebanese Shiite movement and Iran, which supports it. “The Americans needed us for Hezbollah,” says a French diplomat. “They tried to play (on their own) but it didn’t work so the French brought their traditional added value. »
France, which has been losing momentum in recent years in the Middle East, is thus regaining its “traditional place” among the different players in the region, he notes. “From that point of view, it’s a victory.” “This agreement is the fruit of hard work carried out over many months. It is a success for French diplomacy and we can be proud of it,” reacted the head of French diplomacy Jean-Noël Barrot. According to Hasni Abidi, the Lebanese “insisted on the presence of France because they do not trust the Americans, who have shown their total alignment with the Israeli position”.
Our live on the ceasefire
Bon timing pour Macron
The announcement is in any case timely for Emmanuel Macron, in bad shape in France since the failed dissolution of the National Assembly in June and who hopes to regain momentum on the international scene. The head of state has so far rarely been rewarded for his diplomatic efforts, from Libya to Ukraine.
In Ukraine, he even came under strong criticism for continuing to dialogue with Vladimir Putin after the start of the Russian offensive in February 2022. Without forgetting Lebanon, a former French protectorate, where Emmanuel Macron has tried in vain since 2020 to resolve the institutional crisis which paralyzes the country by putting pressure on its political leaders.
Macron will continue to invest in the issue
Such an announcement a few days before his state visit to Saudi Arabia, from December 2 to 4, also constitutes a potential asset for the French president. He can “try to get the Saudis on board” in favor of stabilizing Lebanon, particularly financially, even if Crown Prince Mohammed ben Salman perhaps “does not (necessarily) have this objective”, sketches Agnès Levallois.
There is still a long way to go for the effective implementation of the ceasefire on the ground. Paris and Washington will “ensure” that this is the case. But “how will things happen if there is a problem?” », asks Agnès Levallois, noting that the Lebanese army will not have “many resources” to act as a buffer between the Shiite movement and the Israeli army. Faced with all these challenges, “France is faced with a delicate mission: maintaining its independence and its line of influence while maintaining the trust of all stakeholders,” warns Hasni Abidi.
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