A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect last night, after several weeks of fighting in southern Lebanon. This truce marks a pause in the fighting in the north, but can it inspire a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip?
One could simply say that Israel achieved its objectives in Lebanon and that continued conflict was no longer necessary. Indeed, Hezbollah has lost a large part of its military capabilities and is no longer able to threaten northern Israel. Especially since the agreement provides for a buffer zone held by the Lebanese army under the responsibility of the United States, France and the UN.
In 2006, an agreement of the same type was signed without ever being respected. But this time, Hezbollah cannot boast of a “divine” victory as at the time. It is therefore likely that he will keep a low profile for a more or less long period and will first take care of his affairs inside Lebanon where his position is no longer the same.
A new deal for Hezbollah
Until now, he managed to prevent the election of a new President of the Republic who was not favorable to him. We will see in the coming days if the situation has changed. Lebanon’s constitution provides that the president is always a Christian.
But Hezbollah’s aura since 2006 gave it the status of kingmaker. Now weakened, he will have to deal with the old Lebanese political world and its great feudal families.
In Israel, the ceasefire is also an opportunity to give the army pause. 67 soldiers have been killed on the northern front alone since the ground operation was launched two months ago. However, most of these soldiers are reservists, mobilized citizens. We forget it too often. But Israel is a small country of 10 million inhabitants and 20,000 km², less than Belgium.
Even over-armed and technologically advanced, the Israeli army does not have inexhaustible capabilities. Finally, with this ceasefire, Israel is showing goodwill to the international community and mitigating the effect of the arrest warrant issued by the ICC against its Prime Minister.
Gaza, a different situation?
Now what will happen in Gaza? The war aims are not the same in the north and the south. Israel wants not to neutralize, but to completely eliminate Hamas. However, as long as the latter keeps hostages, he will have a considerable asset up his sleeve.
A ceasefire without the recovery of all hostages, living and dead, would be seen as a defeat and Netanyahu would pay the political price. Barring a miracle, the war will therefore continue in Gaza, at least until the Trump administration is put in place. Only he could force Netanyahu to lay down his arms.
ceasefire Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon buffer zone UN Hezbollah weakened Israeli army ceasefire Gaza neutralization of Hamas Hostages Gaza
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