What winter will France experience in terms of weather? Although it is obviously impossible to say with precision at the end of November, certain elements nevertheless allow us to sketch the weather that will be in France during the months of December, January and February, which together constitute this which specialists call meteorological winter.
Towards a quarter that is generally warmer than normal
As for temperatures, Météo France indicates that a “a warmer than normal scenario is the most likely for France, and more generally across Europe and the Mediterranean basin.” According to the forecasting institute, the scenario has in fact a 50% chance of occurring, compared to 33% when no particular index is detected (since Météo France distributes its percentage of chances over three hypotheses: warmer, compliant or more colder than normal).
The main seasonal models, whose forecasts are aggregated in the image below, estimate that Europe should experience temperatures on average higher than the climate normal over the next three months, based on the years 1991-2020 (on the In the image, areas that will experience higher temperatures than normal are in pink or red).
Weather Cities et The Weather Channel are also forecasting a quarter that is warmer than seasonal norms. A priori, the three months should also experience similar fates, the three monthly temperature anomalies being of the same ilk.
Météo France, however, reminds that an average temperature higher than seasonal norms does not exclude the occurrence of colder episodes, depending on the weather pattern at the time. A quarter that is generally warmer than average can therefore experience snowy episodes and cold spells, even if global warming makes these episodes increasingly rare.
Few clues regarding rainfall
Concerning the precipitation to be expected next quarter, Météo France notes “that no scenario is favored in France as in most of Europe”. “However, wetter than normal conditions are likely over the Scandinavian countries, and drier than normal over the southern Mediterranean and the Iberian Peninsula,” continues the forecasting institute.
Some models envisage that these differences between the south and the north of Europe have an influence on the fate of France, the northern part of which could experience more rain than normal, while the south would experience slightly less. This configuration, fairly representative of global warming, is also the one envisaged by Weather Cities et The Weather Channel. However, it should be remembered that since rainfall is a fairly volatile phenomenon and difficult to locate with precision, there is always great uncertainty when it comes to making this type of long-term forecast.
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