The price of electricity will drop (a little)

You are right to be surprised: good news is rare. Social plans, tax increases, abysmal deficits, morale at zero: for bad news, we have a choice.

Well, the good news is that the price of electricity will fall at the beginning of 2025, for the vast majority of individuals.

The only subject being discussed is the extent of the drop. Will it be 9% (that’s the number that’s going around)? A little less, or more? This debate pits, on the one hand, Michel Barnier and Bercy, on the other side, almost all political parties (not just the RN), ministers (like Agnès Pannier-Runacher, for ecology), and the CRE – the Energy Regulatory Commission.

Why will the price of electricity fall?

You have to explain. And this is good, it is expected: market prices for electricity, that is to say those at which supply meets demand, have fallen significantly since the energy and inflationary crisis ended. During this crisis, to cushion the shock, the government reduced taxes on electricity. Today, and this is normal, he wants to bring them back to the previous level – no debate there. What is debated (and which must be debated) is that he plans to go further, higher, on taxes to make money in the process (3 billion). His argument: even with all the taxes that I want to remit, prices will fall for the French – thanks to the market prices that we were just talking about.

Unconvincing explanation. In any case, questions arise.

Firstly because with what was planned by Michel Barnier, if we take a step back, electricity prices (our bills) would still increase between 2019 and 2025: by 41%. Strange with depreciated nuclear power plants.

Then, because the signal would be disastrous. We are encouraged, for the climate, to cherish electricity – and it is electricity that is becoming more expensive. Illogical. An internal government memo that came before my eyes says that electricity will end up being taxed more than gas – a shame.
Finally, companies are not affected by the regulated price – for them, prices will increase. They will pay, again according to this confidential note, more expensive electricity than in Germany. Implausible.

So, what solutions?

Tonight or tomorrow, senators will block the tax increase. With them, prices would drop between 12 and 16%.

They want to finance the operation by increasing gas prices. For Barnier, it’s a no-brainer: a smaller reduction (on electricity) is better than an increase (on gas). Well, what we remember is that it would be impossible to find 3 billion savings out of 1.6 trillion in public spending. Odd. But let’s stick with the good news: electricity will cost less in 2025. A little.