a COP29 for the climate or for the oil lobbies?

During the night from Saturday to Sunday, after two weeks of not always cordial exchanges and tough negotiations, Mukhtar Babayev, the Azerbaijani president (and former director of an oil company) of the 29^e United Nations conference on climate change, COP29, sealed the adoption of an agreement between the parties represented in Baku. But before we get to the gist of it, let’s go back a few days.

From “an exit from fossil fuels” to “transition fuels”

Because from the opening of this conference in the kingdom of fossil fuels, Ilham Aliyev, the president of Azerbaijan, displayed the colorcolor. « The oiloil and the gazgaz are gifts from god. Countries should not be blamed for having them and should not be blamed for bringing these resources to market, because the market needs them”he declared with confidence.

So, we will not be very surprised to see that the mention of necessary “exit of fuelsfuels fossils »whose appearance in last year’s agreement was so welcomed, disappeared from the final document validated at the end of COP29. Instead, it is about “transition fuels” able to contribute to the famous “just transition” which the COP28 agreement called for. One more victory, it seems, for gas producers.

It must be said that fossil fuel lobbyists were once again present in large numbers in Baku. At least 1,773 had made the trip. We know this because since COP28, delegates have been required to mention their employer. In total, more than 70,000 people participated in the conference. This is more than at almost all past COPs. But about 15,000 fewer than last year.

The group that was created on the occasion of COP26 to push for an exit from fossil fuels, the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliancehas, for the first time, not convinced any new countries to join. The European Union and 25 other countries have just committed to no longer operating new coal-fired power plants without a carbon dioxide (CO) capture system.₂). The United Kingdom, Colombia and New Zealand have joined a coalition of governments – including the French government – aiming to eliminate, but only gradually, subsidies for fossil fuels.

Money, the lifeblood of the fight against global warming

But the key subject of this COP29 was that of financing. To understand, let us recall that on the occasion of the COP15 held in Copenhagen (Denmark), developing countries were promised the payment of 100 billion dollars per year from 2020 and until 2025. Objective: help them finance their energy transition, but also their adaptation to global warming. The amount also included repairs for current and future damage caused by extreme weather events (floods, heatwavesheatwaves, stormsstormsetc.). The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECDOECD) monitors progress made in mattermatter. And its latest assessment showed that in 2022, developed countries mobilized a total of around $115 billion, exceeding the annual target set for the first time.

By developed countries, we mean those which appear on a list of countries designated as historically responsible for anthropogenic global warming. That is Europe and 23 other countries – such as the United States, Japan, Australia or Canada. And what appears in the agreement signed at the end of this COP29 is an objective revised upwards. A target of at least 300 billion dollars per year to be achieved by 2035. But this New Quantified Collective Objective (NCQG) is far from satisfying everyone.

Moreover, the group of small island states (Aosis) withdrew from the negotiations for a time, comparing the amount promised to “a spit in the face of vulnerable nations”. “We count our dead and they offer us crumbs”lamented Panama’s main negotiator, Juan Carlos Monterrey Gómez. In recent weeks, southern countries have spoken of a need of around 1,300 billion dollars per year. And the final agreement still hopes to mobilize “all the actors” to increase funds from “all public and private sources” to reach this figure. It may seem huge. A little less, perhaps when we know that global military spending, for example, amounted to $2.4 trillion in 2023.

While developed countries are called upon to “take the initiative” in this matter, Beijing had drawn a red line on this point. China will have no obligation to participate in this financing. However, an analysis of the figures shows that broadcastsbroadcasts The country’s historical records have now caused more global warming than those of the 27 member states of the European Union combined.

Heading towards Brazil and COP30

The representatives of the countries of the world already have a meeting in a year, between November 10 and 21, 2025, in Belém, Brazil. This COP30 is announced as the one which should mark an intensification of ambitions in terms of reducing carbon emissions. greenhouse gasgreenhouse gas. And the city’s proximity to the Amazon rainforest could make it a nature-oriented COP.

In the meantime, Brazil has joined the extremely closed clan of countries having published their new “nationally determined contribution” in the fight against global warming. As part of the Paris Agreement on climateclimatethese CDNs must be updated every five years. All countries must make theirs public by February 2025.

A reduction in its emissions – compared to those of 2005 – of 37% by 2025 and 43% by 2030. This was the commitment Brazil made in 2016. The new CDN aims for a reduction by at least 59% – or even less 67% – by 2035. Among the means that the country which shelters 60% of the Amazonian forest is mobilize to achieve this: forest restoration. Brazil intends to put an end to the deforestationdeforestation. “Illegal”In any case. And strengthen current restoration work as well as put in place “positive incentives” additional resources to maintain forests and vegetation. Already, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased by almost a third between 2023 and 2024.

Another lever that Brazil will activate: that of reducing its consumption of fossil fuels. Already nearly 90% of its electricity mix is ​​decarbonized (mainly thanks tohydroelectricityhydroelectricity). But the country plans to electrify more uses and to do so, deploy photovoltaic solar and wind power. The new CDN also evokes a place for biofuelsbiofuels and capture and storage technologies carbonecarbone. All this, however, says nothing about plans to expand fossil fuel production for export. In 2023, a report mentioned a desire by the country to increase oil production by 63% and gas by 124% by 2032. While the government continued to finance exploration and production.

The CDN, however, asserts that “Brazil would welcome the launch of international work aimed at defining timetables for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a fair, orderly and equitable manner”. A commitment that several non-governmental organizations underline, even describing it as “hidden gem” of the Brazilian CDN.