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Negotiations over a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon mark a notable step forward, with U.S. and Israeli officials saying the terms of the deal have been accepted in principle. An official declaration of an end to hostilities could be announced in the coming hours, according to sources cited by Al-Arabiya. However, formal approval by the Israeli security cabinet, expected on Tuesday, remains a critical moment to seal this agreement, considered historic in the region.
An agreement under close surveillance: the main points
The draft agreement, the result of more than a year of mediation led by American envoy Amos Hochstein, includes several key provisions aimed at lastingly stabilizing Lebanon’s southern border, marked by recurring tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. These measures include:
- A gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops of southern Lebanon over a period of 60 days.
- The deployment of the Lebanese army in border areas, in cooperation with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
- The movement of Hezbollah’s heavy weapons north of the Litani River, a crucial point for reducing tensions at the border.
To ensure the implementation of this agreement, a international supervisory committee will be created. Led by the United States, this committee will also include France, Lebanon, Israel and UNIFIL. This mechanism aims to monitor compliance with the commitments made by both parties and to deal with any possible breach.
Israel’s position: between approval and caution
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved the deal “in principle” during a security consultation Sunday evening, according to sources cited by CNN. However, Israel expressed reservations on several details, particularly regarding response mechanisms in the event of violations by Hezbollah. These questions were transmitted to the Lebanese government on Monday for consideration.
Israel also insists on the need to obtain robust guarantees from the United States, in particular via a letter of assurances. This would allow the Israeli army to carry out military actions against imminent threats, such as the reinstallation of Hezbollah military bases near the border or the trafficking of heavy weapons. According to the agreement, such interventions would require prior consultation with Washington if the Lebanese army failed to neutralize the threats.
An Israeli official told Axios that “we think we have an agreement, but nothing is signed yet. He added that until Israel’s security cabinet approves the deal, “everything can still go off the rails.” »
France at the heart of the negotiations
France’s participation in the supervisory committee was one of the major sticking points in the negotiations. Initially, Israel was opposed to it, particularly after the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced its support for the arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) against Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. This decision angered Netanyahu and jeopardized the discussions.
However, thanks to direct mediation between Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron, a compromise was found. France agreed to improve its bilateral relations with Israel, while Israel accepted France’s inclusion in the supervisory committee, in accordance with Lebanese requests and the insistence of President Nabih Berri.
Regional and international implications
The agreement comes in a tense regional context, marked by persistent clashes between Israel and Hezbollah. The two sides have continued to exchange fire in recent days, increasing the risk of an escalation that could jeopardize the talks. U.S. officials say mediation efforts helped avert a collapse in talks, but the shadow of a resumption of hostilities still looms.
For Lebanon, this agreement represents an opportunity to restore state sovereignty over its entire territory, particularly south of the Litani. The withdrawal of Israeli forces and the reduction of Hezbollah’s military activities in this area could contribute to long-term stabilization.
On the Israeli side, the agreement is seen as an opportunity to strengthen national security while limiting Hezbollah’s influence near its borders. However, domestic criticism, particularly from hard-right members of Netanyahu’s cabinet, could make it difficult to finally approve the deal.
The remaining challenges
Although the terms of the agreement are largely finalized, several sensitive points remain under discussion:
- Israel’s freedom of movement in southern Lebanon : Israel wishes to retain a right of intervention in the event of a threat, which could be perceived as a violation of Lebanese sovereignty.
- The composition and prerogatives of the supervisory committee : The exact role of UNIFIL and other members of the committee will need to be clarified to avoid any misunderstanding.
- Managing potential violations : The effectiveness of the supervision mechanism will depend on the cooperation of both parties and their willingness to respect the commitments made.
Cautious optimism
According to Lebanese officials cited by Al-Jadeed, “all obstacles to ceasefire negotiations will be removed in the coming days. » Israeli officials, cited by Maariv et Israel Hayomexpressed similar optimism, saying the deal could be signed by the end of the week.
However, American and Israeli officials remain cautious. “One misstep on the ground could derail everything,” a US official warned. Exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah remain a constant threat to the stability of the negotiations.
An imminent decision
Israel’s security cabinet is due to meet on Tuesday to formally approve the deal. If approved, a joint statement could be issued within hours, marking the official end of hostilities and the start of implementation of the agreement.
For now, all parties involved are struggling to maintain a fragile balance. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether this agreement can truly usher in a new era of stability in a region marked by decades of conflict.
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