Who to believe during war? Each camp carries its own narrative, and the media and social networks serve as relays for both. In its latest survey, the Descartes Foundation sought to analyze the sensitivity of the French to Western and foreign narratives in four major geopolitical conflicts: Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas, China-Taiwan and Mali-France. More than 4,000 people participated.
Russia-Ukraine: a massive rejection of the Kremlin’s speech
The Russian narrative, which justifies the invasion by the need to protect Russian speakers or a response to NATO enlargement, fails to convince. Only 14.7% of French people have a pro-Russian sensitivity above 3 on a scale of 5 according to the study by the Descartes Foundation. Even clearer: 56.9% of respondents completely reject statements such as “Russia protects the Russian-speaking populations persecuted in Ukraine” or that “ it defends itself against a Western military threat ». Results which confirm the low penetration of pro-Kremlin stories in France.
The Ukrainian narrative, on the other hand, largely supported by the Western camp, and which is centered on the defense of democratic values, garners the support of 76.4% of participants who consider that “ Ukraine contributes to the defense of Europe and its values ».
Israel-Hamas: clear divisions
Following the attacks of October 7, 2023, the Israeli narrative, which characterizes Hamas as an Islamist terrorist group, dominates. 67% of French people adhere to this point of view, and 70% consider that Hamas attacks deliberately targeted civilians.
However, the Israeli military response is a source of polarization within French society: 45% of respondents believe that it constitutes a genocide against the Palestinians, thus echoing international law. On the other hand, and this is somewhat worrying: 30% defend the idea that Hamas’ actions are part of a “ resistance to Israeli oppression ».
China-Taiwan: strong support for Taiwanese self-determination
The crisis between Beijing and Taipei illustrates the strong support of the French for the Taiwanese discourse: 80% of respondents support the idea that “ it is up to the Taiwanese people to decide their future ”, while the Chinese narrative, according to which Taiwan is an integral part of China, is approved by only 15.2% of respondents.
Support from the French in a conflict which evokes the image of a David against Goliath, with, on one side, a democratic regime, and on the other, a communist-totalitarian regime.
Mali-France: mixed perceptions
French interventions in the Sahel (operations Serval and Barkhane) give rise to contrasting interpretations: 37% of respondents share the Malian story, centered on the denunciation of a “ form of neocolonialism ” French.
Conversely, 70.4% of respondents support the legitimacy of French actions, perceived as aid to local armies. On the other hand, less than a third (23.6%) think that these have made it possible to reduce terrorism in this region.
A propaganda war between news channels
Overall, the French show greater sensitivity to Western narratives (Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, France in Mali) than to Russian, Chinese, Malian or Hamas narratives. Therefore not very permeable to foreign influence, the latter nevertheless remain quite cautious about the information that is conveyed within the traditional media: only 58.1% of respondents declaring that they trust them.
The influence of social networks, the preferred channel of the non-Western camp, is growing, particularly among the youngest. People seeking information there appear to be more sensitive to foreign stories than to Western stories. Laurent Cordonier, director of the Descartes Foundation, concludes: “ Foreign influence operations struggle to significantly change French public opinion, but their impact on polarization deserves increased vigilance. »
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