If the time has come for stability on the side of wheat pricethe news is better for the rapeseed price which seems to be doing well. “The rise in rapeseed prices over the past few weeks has been good”estimated on November 19 Pierre-Antoine Foreau, director of Cereaprowhich considers that opportunities are to be seized for producers of large crops who have rapeseed in their rotation.
An increase of almost €40/t for rapeseed
The price of oilseeds has, in fact, increased by around forty euros since the beginning of October to stand at €536/t on November 21 (rapeseed Fob Moselle, source Réussir/La Dépêche). “This increase is explained by the surge in the price of palm oil which brings in its wake the price of other oil-rich seeds, including rapeseed and the sunflower »explains Sébastien Poncelet, grain market expert at Argus Medias.
A strong need to import rapeseed into Europe
Furthermore, without being catastrophic, the French and European harvests of rapeseed 2024 are quite low compared to the 5-year average. Which translates into a strong need for imports. “The rise in prices is also due to the fact that Europe is seeking to attract the imports it needs”says Sébastien Poncelet. The specialist, however, considers that “the market has already gone a good part of the way to integrate the tensions”. Clearly, there is nothing to suggest that the increase could continue without a new trigger. “Prices will not reach 2021-2022 peaks”he warns.
Sunflower prices are soaring but the low harvest does not allow us to benefit from them
Regarding the courses of sunflowerthey are experiencing an even more marked increase than that of rapeseed. As of November 20, the Rendu Saint-Nazaire oleic quotation stood at €645/t, notably due to very poor harvests in Europe (excess humidity in Western Europe and drought for Eastern and of the Black Sea). Unfortunately, few producers are able to take advantage of these high prices. sunflowergiven the very low harvest.
What strategy to sell your soft wheat harvest?
On the side of soft wheatan increase exists “but she is much more shy”notes Pierre-Antoine Foreau, who adds: “The current price level is insufficient to cover production costs due to poor yields this year. » Faced with immediate cash flow needs, some producers will nevertheless have no other choice than to sell part of their cereals. It also depends on the level of commitment. “The farmer who has not yet sold anything from his 2024 harvest must start to commit volumes to spread his risk”advises Matthieu Beyaert, market manager of the cooperative Noriap. On the other hand, those who have already sold 70 or 80% can afford to wait for a possible improvement.
For the producers concerned, “durable and improving wheat as well as spring barley are interesting crops to sell given the current prices of these productions”slips Pierre-Antoine Foreau.
A small exportable volume of French wheat to be sold at the right time
The French situation of soft wheat in 2024 is very special: it is one of the smallest harvests in the last 40 years. With production estimated at 25 million tonnes (Mt), the exportable volume amounts to 4 Mt compared to 10 or 11 Mt usually. “It’s a small volume that will have to be sold but French wheat does not need to enter international competition straight away”considers Sébastien Poncelet. In mid-November, the change in the euro/dollar parity gave French wheat some competitiveness. After several weeks of non-existent port activity, some sales were made to Morocco.
What are the prospects for the evolution of cereal prices?
According to Sébastien Poncelet, the global market for wheat is currently in equilibrium. On the supply side, Russia, although very present in exports during the first part of the campaign, benefits this year from a lower exportable supply than in previous years, which suggests that it will be less present during the second part of the campaign. . Harvests in the southern hemisphere (Argentina and Australia) are expected to be at a good level. “The harvest prospects in the southern hemisphere are good enough to counter any surge in prices, but supplies in the Black Sea are sufficiently low to avoid a collapse”summarizes Sébastien Poncelet.
Concerning demand, the strong withdrawal of China, on the podium of the main world importers of wheat for several years, is not likely to support prices.
From now on, it is the macroeconomic and geopolitical upheavals that will be able to change the market. “All eyes will also quickly turn to the 2025 campaign”believes Sébastien Poncelet.
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