Ukraine, dangerous two months ahead?

Two factors make the current situation particularly volatile. First of all, we are almost three years into the war and there is a form of fatigue on both sides. On the Russian side, even if the dynamic has been favorable since the spring, it is not decisive either. Certainly, progress is becoming clearer on the Eastern Front – but nothing decisive. Because, when you think about it, getting gains of 15 km² every day is not enough to make a significant breakthrough towards a full-scale occupation of Ukraine. In this sense, compared to the initial objectives set by Vladimir Poutine in 2022, we are very far from the mark and very close to some form of failure.

On the Ukrainian side, despite the capture of an enclave in Russian territory, we remain in a fragile position on the Eastern front. kyiv, in addition to a real problem of personnel renewal, also remains too dependent on Western weapons and their most effective use against the enemy.

The change of tenant at the White House, another factor of uncertainty

The election of Donald Trump to UNITED STATES explains the feeling of tension on both sides in recent days. Everyone seeks to consolidate, or even improve, their positions to be in the best or least bad situation when Donald Trump returns to power.

Hence the Biden administration's decision to authorize long-range firing into Russian territory with ATACMS missiles and the controversial supply of antipersonnel mines to Ukraine.

In response, Moscow is putting maximum pressure on theUkraine with bombings on cities and the firing of the Orechnik missilean intermediate-range ballistic missile, capable of carrying nuclear warheads. The message is intended for Ukrainians, but also for Westerners. This missile, with a range of 3,000 to 5,500 km, could indeed reach the territory of the west coast of the United States and almost all of Europe.

Also readATACMS missiles: what benefits are expected for Ukraine after the American green light?

Donald Trump leaves his intentions unclear

This is undoubtedly a deliberate strategy. During his campaign, he explained that he would resolve the conflict in Ukraine within 24 hours and, if possible, before his inauguration at the end of January. And since then, there has been radio silence on this issue.

In the midst of the Trumpian fog, the Russians and Ukrainians are increasing the pressure. Everyone seeks to control the level of escalation nonetheless. The fact remains that the period leading up to January 20 promises to be perilous.