The second crypto on the market could surprise investors, although it is developing a significant divergence between its performance against the dollar and that against the rest of the market. Could we not simply see a convergence with previous cycles in which Ether presented a delay in ignition?
Return to $4,000 in a context of disinterest?
It is Friday, November 22, 2024 and the price of ETH is moving around $3,350.
Ethereum is an asset that, during each bull cycle, shows some inertia when compared to Bitcoin or other altcoins. In fact, the second crypto on the market is historically slow to launch its parabolic phase and then catches up with very strong impulses.
As past performance is no guarantee of future performance, there is no guarantee that history could repeat itself. Furthermore, the chart of the ETH versus BTC pair crosses each zone of interest without managing to turn around.
Paradoxically, against the dollar, the chart is rather attractive, demonstrating a successful construction with particularly visible supports and resistance. Can ETH recover soon and regain its place as a barometer of the altcoin market?
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| Pairs with Ethereum | 24 hours | 7 days | 1 month |
| Ethereum/ USDT | +7,40 % | +9,40 % | +31,20 % |
| Ethereum/ Bitcoin | +6,40 % | -2,20 % | -12,10 % |
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Yet another failure for relative strength!
In the introduction, we mentioned the pair against BTC which continues to dig deeper and deeper, undermining historical supports as the bottom of a bearish channel which has been developing since September 2022.
Against the rest of the altcoins, the chart is also looking for support in a range configuration between the lower bound at 0.25 and the upper bound at 0.75. We forcefully crossed the median of this range last week, steering the ETH/TOTAL3 pair into negative polarity.
Thus, unless there is a relaunch before the monthly close with a view to closing above 0.5, the probabilities of a continuation towards the opposite limit are high. Ethereum could therefore continue to progress less quickly than the rest of the crypto market, unless there is a powerful rebound in the next 10 days.
Chart of Ethereum against TOTAL3 in monthly
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Ethereum, the paradox of a bullish reconstruction against the dollar
Against the dollar, the bullish construction continues calmly. The major pivot zone around $2,800 has been breached and the asset is working above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of this impulse.
This is a setup that sets the stage for a continuation scenario towards $4,000 where price action will encounter a significant friction zone. However, $3,445 must be crossed before considering reaching the area drawn in red on the chart.
In the event of a correction in the market, ETH could pull back and test the $2,800 zone to validate it as support. This would be a very interesting move that could lead to a liberated and powerful bullish recovery.
These 2 scenarios are the most likely given current configurations. The reintegration below $2,800 could nevertheless develop. If prices were to settle permanently below this level again, it is likely that we could retest at least $2,400.
ETH price chart in 3 days
In summary, Ethereum remains weak against Bitcoin but also against altcoins. Paradoxically, its chart against the dollar shows strength with a very interesting bullish construction. The next move could launch the price action towards $4,000.
So, do you think ETH can outperform the crypto market again? Don't hesitate to give us your opinion in the comments.
Have a nice day and we'll see you next week for a new technical analysis of Ethereum.
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Sources : TradingView, Coinglass, GlassnodeETF
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Analyst at Cryptoast Research for several years, I carry out in-depth monitoring of the crypto market to analyze the next narratives while keeping an eye on the financial markets.
Emmanuel Lazaro
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