How the Orange Revolution, “a personal insult” for Putin, had the seeds of the war in Ukraine 20 years ago

UKRAINE – Exactly 20 years ago, on November 22, 2004, half a million people gathered at Independence Square in kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. The crowd then protests against the election which they consider to be rigged of Viktor Yanukovych, the man supported by Vladimir Putin. This is the beginning of the “Orange Revolution” which will bring Viktor Yushchenko to power and which will mark the beginning of the rapprochement between Ukraine and the West.

The Orange Revolution received support from many European governments and the United States, with some Western NGOs funding the opposition organization. This event thus reflects the struggle for influence between the West and Moscow in the country and lays the foundations for the war in Ukraine. Asked by HuffPostFrançoise Thom, historian specializing in post-communist Russia, explains to us how the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has its roots in the Orange Revolution.

HuffPost. 20 years ago the Orange Revolution took place in Ukraine. Can you explain this political event to us in a few sentences?

To contextualize, Putin was triumphantly re-elected in March 2004. He believed he could apply the same electoral technologies that had been effective in Russia for the Ukrainian presidential election. His objective was to elect Viktor Yanukovych and the Kremlin provided him with logistical and media support. The candidate facing Yanukovych was Viktor Yushchenko, a pro-Western. On the day of the second round of the election, November 21, 2004, Putin congratulated Yanukovych even before the results were announced. The vote [qui donne Ianoukovitch vainqueur] is contested by the opposition which denounces fraud. Ukrainians then took to the streets en masse, it was called the Orange Revolution. The Ukrainian parliament then called for the election to be annulled and a new vote took place on December 26. This time, Yushchenko won with 52% of the vote.

Did she keep her promises?

In part. From a cultural point of view, Ukraine has become westernized. It has become closer with the European Union and NATO. But the anti-corruption aspirations of the population have not been realized. Ukrainians were disappointed by the Yushchenko government which was too weak to fight against the influence of the oligarchs, often manipulated from Moscow.

To what extent is the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 rooted in this revolution?

For Putin, the Orange Revolution is a snub. He could not digest this failure, which he saw as a personal insult from the West, and decided to take revenge on Ukraine. There is then a turning point in Russian foreign policy which becomes much more anti-Western. This is also when the Russians are playing the separatism card in Ukraine. In 2014, Crimea was annexed, marking the beginning of the dismantling of the Ukrainian state, then the Lugansk Republic declared itself independent and called on Russia for help, and finally came war.

How could the influence of the EU and the United States in the Orange Revolution provide arguments for Putin in his warlike rhetoric?

Europeans were heavily involved in the Orange Revolution. Western NGOs have been active. All this in fact served as an argument for Putin. But the Russians focus on this conspiratorial vision and they do not understand that there are spontaneous movements in the crowds. For Vladimir Putin, Ukrainians are Russians and the Ukrainian nation is something invented by Westerners.

But the struggle between Russia and the West in Ukraine didn't wait until 2004?

The Western aspirations of Ukrainians were much earlier, obviously. They even dated from the USSR, already from the time of Gorbachev. There was then a rejection of the excesses of the post-Soviet regime.

Finally, is the Orange Revolution still unfinished?

Yes, we can say that the objectives of the Orange Revolution have still not been achieved. But the war put a stop to Ukrainian developments and these objectives took a back seat. Now the major objective is to survive as a nation. Once Ukraine experiences peace, which is not swallowed up by Russia, it will be able to resume its path towards the rule of law, the eradication of oligarchs and the creation of independent courts.

Also see on HuffPost :