This is one of those weak signals that doesn't make the headlines but reshuffles the cards. Last year, Saudi Arabia and Iran officially renewed diplomatic ties. The two countries sealed their reconciliation under the auspices of China.
Tuesday, November 19, their representatives met in Riyadh for a new meeting to implement the agreement: the opportunity to deepen economic and diplomatic ties, etc.
Already last week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman called Iran a “Sister Republic” and asked Israel to “respect its sovereignty”.
Relations seem to be in good shape between the two giants of the Arab-Persian Gulf.
However, relations have always been tumultuous between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia. The two countries have been engaged in a struggle for influence in the Middle East, especially since the Iranian Islamic Revolution of 79.
Tehran has woven its web in the region, in Iraq, in Syria, in Yemen… Relations with Riyadh were completely severed between 2016 and 2023 after the execution of a Shiite dignitary in Saudi Arabia.
So why reconcile? The Iranians wanted to escape their isolation. And the Saudis want to establish themselves as a diplomatic power that speaks to as many people as possible. They also aspire to peace in Yemen. In fact, the conflict with the Houthis, Iran's allies, has been much less intense for more than two years.
Saudi Arabia toughens tone with Israel
And the war in Gaza has strengthened these ties. The conflict between Israel and Hamas has placed the Palestinian question at the heart of regional diplomacy. Another subject of rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Tehran, Israel's sworn enemy, has always vigorously defended the Palestinian people.
As for the Saudis, they seemed to abandon this cause for a time, but they are once again toughening their tone towards Israel, which is committing a “genocide” in Gaza, according to Mohamed bin Salman.
However, the United States' project to achieve peace in the region involves normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, based on the model of the Abraham Accords concluded with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, or even Sudan and Morocco.
Biden's peace plan was ultimately not very far from Trump's, season one: in summary, the United States signs a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, even helps it launch a nuclear program, then Riyadh makes peace with Israel, which agrees to negotiate with the Palestinians.
This hardly holds water in light of the warming between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This morning, on Inter, Jean-Yves Le Drian, now Emmanuel Macron's representative in Lebanon, estimated that the Abraham process was “lapsed”.
According to an Israeli source, this judgment makes no sense, Iran and Saudi Arabia remain rivals. Israel and the United States will have the means to convince Riyadh.
In any case, their rapprochement sends a message to the next Trump administration: the Middle East has changed a lot over the past four years.
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