Democracy or military dictatorship: which way does the Gabonese transition lean?

This reform is part of a dynamic of political change after the military coup of August 30, 2023, which ended more than 50 years of Bongo rule. International observers were invited, demonstrating the desire to ensure the transparency of the process while awaiting the presidential elections of 2025. However, some opponents describe the text as “dictatorial”. Should we see this as a true democratic process or an attempt to consolidate military power?

The reasons for the coup d’état of August 30, 2023

The coup d’état that occurred on August 30, 2023 followed an attempt to manipulate the electoral results, says Augustin Emane. The power in place, embodied by Ali Bongo and his family since 1967, announced a new victory despite suspicions of fraud, as had already happened in 2009 and 2016. “This is where the military intervenes to put an end to what was considered a charade and decides to initiate a process of restoration of institutions”specifies the lawyer.

The new constitution: a strong presidential system

One of the first measures taken by the military after taking power was the drafting of a new constitution, aimed at overhauling Gabon’s institutional framework. This text proposes a radical change in the structure of power, moving from a semi-presidential regime, inspired by the French Fifth Republic, to a presidential regime: “the fundamental difference is that we went from a semi-presidential regime to a presidential regime, where indeed there is a strong executive”, insists Augustin Emane. However, the revision raises many questions: will this new institutional configuration make it possible to turn the page on the old regime, or will it strengthen an already very powerful executive?

Will the new constitution be legitimate?

Some opposition representatives, such as former Prime Minister Alain-Claude Billy By Nze, a somewhat controversial figure, denounce what they perceive as a presidential regime which could easily degenerate into a dictatorship. Although the constitutional revision process has been presented as inclusive, it remains under the control of the military, which fuels criticism of the true democratic scope of the reform. Nevertheless, for Augustin Emane, “the process corresponds to what was announced by the military, that is to say a vast consultation of the Gabonese. 38,000 proposals were sent by Gabonese. The text takes up what emerged from the contributions in question”.