what could change the commitment of thousands of North Korean soldiers in the Russian region of Kursk?

Their presence questions as much as it worries. After the rumors, the massive arrival of North Korean soldiers in Russia was confirmed by Ukraine and its Western allies, including the United States. Neither Pyongyang nor Moscow have acknowledged the presence of these fighters. This contingent of 11,000 men, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, or 10,000, according to Washington, would stand up to the Ukrainian army in the Kursk region, partly invaded since August.

For the moment, the missions entrusted to these soldiers, some of whom come from Kim Jong Un's elite special forces corps, are still unclear. But they already have “took part in hostilities”assured kyiv at the beginning of November, and even suffered “losses”. Franceinfo looks at the possible consequences of the massive deployment of these North Korean soldiers on the battlefield, in Russia and in Ukraine.

Sending these tens of thousands of men to Russia “doesn’t come out of nowhere”reminds franceinfo Jérôme Pellistrandi, former general of the French army and editor-in-chief of the National Defense Magazine. “Since the start of the conflict [en février 2022]North Korea has supplied more than eight million shells to Moscow, armored vehicles and even machine guns compatible with Russian ammunition.he explains. “In passing, this shows the enormous consumption of equipment by the Russian army”slips the specialist. Received with great fanfare in Pyongyang in mid-June, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un a historic mutual defense agreement reinforcing North Korea's support for Russia in its war against Ukraine.

In Kursk Oblast, “where nearly 500 km2 are still controlled by Ukrainians”recalls Jérôme Pellistrandi, around 50,000 soldiers would be mobilized against the Ukrainian troops – including 20% ​​North Koreans, declared Volodymyr Zelensky on November 11. “It's clearly a breath of fresh air for the Russian army, who finds there a military manpower available for his counter-offensive in the Kursk region”comments Jérôme Pellistrandi.

In return, North Korea could take advantage of this deployment to update the skills of its army, “which has not fought a war since the 1950s and is lagging far behind in technology regarding aviation or dronespoints out the former general. The American and South Korean intelligence services mention the presence of at least three generals and 500 officers, which reinforces the idea of ​​an apprenticeship.

For now, troops from North Korea “do not seem to have been massively engaged”underlines geopolitologist Ulrich Bounat, associate researcher at the Open Diplomacy think tank. “This can mean two things: either they are not yet ready, or they have not been used as cannon fodder, but rather to ensure logistics in depth, or even the second line of defense”presents this specialist in central and eastern Europe to franceinfo.

According to the scraps of information available on these troops, “there seem to be two types of soldiers deployed”explains Ulrich Bounat. On the one hand, around 1,500 soldiers would be part “units better trained than average”and counting among “the most faithful” to the Pyongyang regime. On the other hand, more than 8,000 less experienced soldiers could “find yourself on the front line”he warns.

Some of these North Korean soldiers, however, would come from the 11th Army Corps, and trained to support “enormous physical suffering as well as psychological torture”explains to the BBC researcher Michael Madden, specialist in North Korea at the Stimson Center, a think tank based in Washington. “What they lack in combat experience, they make up for in what they can endure physically and mentally. In the event of special operations, they will be much better prepared than average North Korean units.”he specifies.

In the large-scale war that has ravaged Ukraine since February 2022, the North Korean contingent remains “marginal” compared to the rest of the troops engaged on both sides, Ulrich Bounat nuance. “Around 10,000 men is an insufficient extension, that is not what will change the situation of the conflict, he sweeps away. Especially when we know that Russia recruits between 20,000 and 30,000 men per month.” Meanwhile, in the Kursk region, Ukrainian soldiers remain numerous and have strengthened their defense lines over the past three months.

“They notably took the town of Soudja, a complicated urban area to attack, and a whole bunch of high positions where they are quite difficult to dislodge”explains Stéphane Audrand, international risk consultant and military specialist, who estimates “35,000 men” the number of Ukrainian soldiers mobilized “in the Kursk pocket”. Even if their positions are not “not very fortified”notes the analyst, these soldiers “can always count on significant fallback margins” in order to organize yourself and avoid losses. “Militarily speaking, it’s a good deal, because it wears down the Russian war system”he comments.

While the idea of ​​negotiations between kyiv and Moscow is gaining ground, Vladimir Putin seems determined to “remove the Kursk trump card from the Ukrainians’ sleeve”and thus prevent this piece of Russian territory from being used as a bargaining chip, explains Stéphane Audrand. And in this operation, North Korean soldiers “could play a specific role, and be entrusted with a turnkey sector of the front, rather than serving under Russian commanders”underlines the geopolitologist. The presence of North Korean military equipment, generals from the country, but also “the language barrier between Russians and North Koreans”, support this hypothesis in his eyes.

As for the deployment zones, they should remain limited, because “the agreement between Russia and North Korea provides for aid to defend its national territory”and not invade Ukraine, recalls the specialist. However, should we expect North Korean troops to be sent to occupied Ukrainian territories, such as Donbass or Crimea? “This is a possibility, because the new Russian Constitution recognizes these annexed provinces as part of Russia”replies Stéphane Audrand. “But it would then have a completely different impact on the international scene”he warns.

By sending its soldiers to support Russia against Ukraine, North Korea risks worsening already very tense relations with its southern neighbor. “For Seoul, better-trained North Korean troops with more recent technologies necessarily represent an increased threat”points out Jérôme Pellistrandi, who sees it as an export of the conflict “far beyond Ukraine”. On Friday, Kim Jong Un also ordered the “production massive” explosive drones “as soon as possible”posing a new risk to South Korea. The plans for these machines did not magically fall into the hands of the dictator: they could come from Russia or Iran, another ally of Moscow, which notably supplies it with Shahed 136 type drones.

“We are facing a war of attrition [d’usure] which exhausts resources, and forces people to seek support from outside.explains Ulrich Bounat. “Certainly, there were already foreign fighters in both armies, but 10,000 soldiers at once is a clear escalation”he comments. “We see the impact that this has in Asian countries today, with a strong mobilization of South Korea. If tomorrow, Iran were to send soldiers to Russia or Ukraine, it is very likely that everything the Middle East is in turn destabilized”alerts the analyst. “If this should show us anything, it's that the war in Ukraine is not a territorial conflict between two countries. It's much, much more complicated than that.”