LIs time on Russia’s side, 1,000 days after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine? At first glance, the “special military operation” launched by Vladimir Putin on February 24, 2022, scores points. After holding out against the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the summer of 2023, the Russian armed forces have themselves relaunched an offensive since October. They are methodically nibbling away at Donbass and have taken towns that have nevertheless been transformed into real strongholds: Bakhmout, Avdiivka and Vouhledar.
The Ukrainian offensive in the Russian oblast of Kursk, in August 2024, certainly created a surprise, but did not fundamentally change the dynamic in favor of Russia. This latest relaunch, as winter arrives, of massive salvos of drones and ballistic missiles targeting Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure. On November 17 alone, the Ukrainian air force claimed to have shot down 102 missiles and 42 drones in one of the most powerful strikes since August 26. A missile struck Odessa on November 18, killing eight civilians and injuring several others.
Human and material cost
The election of Donald Trump weakens military aid to kyiv. The future 47th president of the United States made the return of peace to Europe one of his campaign promises, showing himself reluctant to support Ukraine. “We continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refuses to conclude an agreement, Zelensky,” castigated the Republican candidate during his campaign. The United States is by far the largest provider of military aid to Ukraine, with nearly $570 billion, according to the Kiel Institute. Once fully in power, Donald Trump could simply twist the arm of kyiv to negotiate with Moscow. The Kremlin would arrive in a position of strength in hypothetical negotiations. While waiting for the inauguration ceremony on January 20, 2025, Joe Biden is increasing the shipment of military equipment and has authorized Ukraine to strike Russia in depth with ATACMS missiles.
But this situation, which appears favorable to Moscow, comes at a high price. Since the start of the war, Russia has lost 700,000 soldiers (killed, wounded, missing and captured). While the number of daily losses was 200 soldiers in 2022, it would now be between 1,500 and 2,000. On November 11, 1,950 Russian soldiers were killed or injured. During the First World War, an average of 900 French soldiers were killed every day.
In Ukraine, one square kilometer gained by the Russian army today comes at the cost of 10.5 losses. The arrival of 10,000 North Korean troops shows Russia’s recruiting difficulties. It took 1,000 days to create 65,840 square kilometers, a little more than the size of Lithuania. In total, Russia has taken over 10.82% of Ukrainian territory since February 2022. A figure which rises to almost 18% when counting Crimea and the annexed parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
The losses are also material. Nearly 20,000 pieces of equipment (vehicles, aircraft) were destroyed. According to the Oryx site, which counts the visual losses of the two camps, the Russian armed forces lost 3,569 tanks, including 2,502 destroyed; 5,008 infantry fighting vehicles were lost. The Russian Air Force lost 132 planes and 147 helicopters. The Black Sea Fleet saw around twenty of its ships sink. As a result, the remaining ships took refuge in ports far from the front. Ukraine can continue to sell its wheat, which represents 40% of its exports.
Post-traumatic stress and inflation
Russian society, although spared for the moment by general mobilization, is also suffering the human costs of the war. The population in Russia is expected to decline in the coming years, from 146 million inhabitants to 142 in 2030, then 138 million in 2040. The birth rate is 1.5 per woman compared to 1.79 in France. A rate of 2.1 is required for generational renewal. Nearly 100,000 veterans returning from the front suffer from untreated post-traumatic stress. Addiction problems (alcohol, drugs, medication) increase their aggressiveness and pose “political and social risks”, according to the deputy director of the Russian presidential administration, Sergueï Kirienko.
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On the economic side, Russia has spent the equivalent of $320 billion since February 24, 2022, or $320 million per day. Inflation increased by more than 9% in one year, forcing the Russian Central Bank to raise its key rate to 21%. Labor shortages are also being felt. According to an investigation by the Russian service of BBC90,000 job offers for positions in defense companies or the military-industrial complex were published between August 15 and September 15. 2025 could be the year of negotiations for Ukraine, but also of major economic and political shocks for Russia.
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