This Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he wanted an end to the war in his country in 2025. At the same time, the United States gave kyiv the green light to strike Russia with its long-range ATACMS missiles. Meanwhile, Russian troops continue their advance into eastern Ukraine and Donald Trump is set to return to the White House. Is the war now close to its epilogue? Elements of response.
Volodymyr Zelensky changes his tone. After having long insisted on Russian withdrawal from the territory as a sine qua non condition for a possible negotiation, he now seems to be giving up and affirms that his country “will do everything in its power” to end the war. through diplomatic channels in the coming year. A message for the attention of its citizens, its allies but also Donald Trump, believes expert Frans Osinga. “Not only does Zelensky not close any doors and thus spare himself criticism from his people and his allies, but at the same time he sends a message to Donald Trump: Ukraine cannot be kept out of the negotiations,” he emphasizes. During his telephone interview with the future President of the United States, Zelensky also displayed a certain optimism: he did not perceive any hostile intentions to Ukrainian ambitions in the Republican's speech.
“Trump will have to do the job”
A few weeks before the end of his mandate, Joe Biden would have made a big decision and finally authorized Ukrainian troops to use American long-range ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory, in the Kursk region. An unexpected green light, not yet formalized, while kyiv is losing ground on the battlefield. A way to change the situation on the front but also to rebalance forces before possible negotiations in the hope of being able to challenge Moscow's claims in occupied zones. In any case, Ukraine does not want to deal “alone” with Russia to end the war. Such a position would indeed be likely to serve it poorly. Last Thursday, the American channel Fox News announced that Donald Trump should “soon” appoint a special representative for Russian-Ukrainian negotiations. The United States seems at this stage the only power capable of providing security guarantees to Ukraine. “Trump will therefore have to do the job,” comments Frans Osinga.
Russian resources are running out
If Ukraine suffers significant Russian breakthroughs, the expert, a former air force commander, emphasizes that a ceasefire will also be beneficial to Russia. The army in fact loses many soldiers per kilometer gained, as well as military equipment and armored vehicles. “Russia risks facing serious problems if it persists in continuing the fighting with the same intensity and, at the same time, the West continues to support Ukraine. Putin therefore probably launched the offensive in the Donbass (editor's note: eastern Ukraine) with the aim of conquering as much territory as possible and accumulating arguments before sitting down at the negotiating table to try to achieve to a truce,” adds Frans Osinga. On the other hand, Zelensky must take into account the growing unpopularity of the war on his lands: the population is now slightly in favor (55%) of a cession of part of the territory if the concession can put an end to the conflict, according to official figures from KIIS, the Ukrainian reference institute.
“New political reality”
“Volodymyr Zelensky is faced with a new political reality: the return of Donald Trump to the White House. This is not good news for Ukraine, at first glance, due to its desire to quickly end the war, but Donald Trump nevertheless has many advantages,” comments the Russia expert , Hans van Koningsbrugge. He can indeed decide to provide more weapons to Ukraine and continue to support it financially while increasing US oil production to maintain pressure on Vladimir Putin. “However, it is unclear to what extent kyiv and Moscow are ready to cooperate. The outcome of the diplomatic track therefore remains unpredictable,” he concludes.
SOurce: https://www.7sur7.be/
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