COTidienne | Cereals – Rebound in wheat and corn prices on the CBOT

THE prix of the main futures contracts on the wheat and on the but rebounded this Friday, November 15, 2024 on the CBOT. The increase was valid for all wheat maturities (between +5 and +8.5 cents/bushel) with a gain of 6.25 cents/bushel over December, to 536.5 cents/bushel, and an increase of 5 .75 crs$/bushel in March, the most worked deadline. Same movement for corn, however less marked, with increases of between 2.5 and 5 cts$/bushel depending on the deadlines. On Euronextwhich had resisted the declines of the previous week on the CBOT rather well, prices also recorded a nice increase, between 1.5 and 6.75 €/t depending on the terms (+5.5 €/t for that of December, at €216.25/t; +€4.25/t for March, the most processed, at €224/t). On the markets hexagonal physical figures, the prices of soft wheat, corn andbarley fodder also closed up nicely. Those of durum wheat remained stable.

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The weekend was turbulent on the markets of agricultural raw materials : after a week of sharp decline on the US wheat and corn markets, the investment funds and operators in general returned to purchases this Friday, allowing the price to rebound across the Atlantic. Different elements collided or complemented each other on the markets, between the fundamentals of the grain sectors, macroeconomics and geopolitics.

The keen appreciation of dollar facing theeuro seems to be stabilizing (parity at $1.055 on Friday against $1.053 the day before). It will therefore be necessary to monitor the reaction of wheat (a certain buying interest appears for EU origin) and corn, which a priori find their account by this level of euro-dollar parity. Operators must also integrate the swirls on the oil (falling on Friday, operators worrying about “a possible surplus of crude by 2025, as well as a drop in demand”, according to AFP). There European Commission announced on Friday that it was counting on a slight acceleration in economic growth (+1.3% for GDP in 2025 after +0.8% in 2024) and a continued slowdown ininflation in zone euro (+2.1% in 2025 after +2.4% this year). Note also that the weekend was marked by new very violent attacks by the Russia on the territory of Ukraine, leading the government authorities of theUkraine to announce the application this Monday of “restrictive measures” of electricity consumption throughout its territory, the attack having “significantly damaged its energy infrastructure”, according to the country's Ministry of Energy, reported by AFP .

On the fundamentals, operators are keeping a close eye on the very end of the corn harvests in UNITED STATESon grain harvests in Australia and on the growing conditions and of semis elsewhere. Strong rains are expected this week in France. The USDA must publish its Crop Progress weekly today at 6 p.m. French time.

In Francewe will also follow the protest movements of agricultural unionswhich begin this Monday. While some organizations are pleading in favor of symbolic actions, others say they are ready for a “blockade of food freight” from Wednesday, particularly in the Southwest. Anger is rising again in the sector, between broken promises, context of bad harvest of 2024 and possibility of imminent signing of theEU-Mercosur free trade agreement. The AGPB, which defends the interests of cerealsemphasize that two measures, defended by the association of producersare emerging: loans of cash subsidized medium-term loans and long-term consolidation loans (twelve years) guaranteed by the State (via BPI France). However, she also says she is waiting for answers on other proposals (fund for reducing charges from crisis units, exemption to move from the three-year average to year n-1 in order to make the social and tax costs of the year 2024 or 2025 without waiting the five years normally required; request for activation by France of the crisis reserve;European Union).

Note that this Monday an “Agriculture and Fisheries” council is being held at EU level, with a debate on the situation of agricultural markets and basic products. Ukraine's Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, Vitalii Koval, is expected to join the ministers ahead of their discussion.

The President of the French Republic met this weekend with the Argentine President, ahead of the G20 which runs until November 19. For his part, the new president of UNITED STATES appointed Chris Wright, a climate skeptic, as Energy Secretary, with “the deregulation of the sector as a roadmap”, according to AFP.

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Fundamentals:

• Argentina, corn, sowing : 38.6% of the surfaces have been planted (source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange);
• Argentina, wheat, harvest : 17.2% carried out (source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange);
• Türkiye, wheat, imports : 6.5 Mt planned for 2024-2025, or 31% less than last year (source: S&P Global Platt's).

Commerce international :

• United States, wheat, export sales : for the week ending November 7, 2024, 380,100 t, within analysts' expectations (source: USDA);
• United States, corn, export sales : for the week ending November 7, 2024, 1,315,100 t, within analyst expectations (source; USDA).

French physical markets from November 15, 2024 (July base for cereals)

Quotations of milling products from November 12, 2024

Commercial quotes for dairy products from November 14, 2024

Evolution dollar / euro du 15 novembre 2024

Chicago Futures Market Closes November 15, 2024

Closing of the Euronext futures market on November 15, 2024

International market quotes from November 15, 2024