how can we explain Washington’s change in strategy on the use of long-range missiles?

The decision had been desperately awaited by kyiv for months. By authorizing Ukraine to use the long-range missiles it has to strike targets on Russian territory, Joe Biden is making a major change of course, two months before his departure from the White House.

The decision has not yet been the subject of an official announcement from the White House on Monday, November 18, but it was revealed by several senior American officials. On the eve of the 1000th day since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and two months before the inauguration of Donald Trump, Washington has decided to authorize the Ukrainian army to use its long-range missiles to strike targets in Russian territory.

A major strategic turnaround, which Volodymyr Zelensky had been calling for for months, and which was the subject of a central disagreement with Joe Biden. The Ukrainian president considered himself prevented by the United States, which supplied him with weapons that he could not use beyond the territory of his country. The White House, for its part, put forward the risk of an escalation of the conflict. A red line that is shattered with this change of course. kyiv would therefore be authorized to target targets on Russian territory, using long-range ATACMS-type missiles, capable of hitting targets more than 300km away.

To understand the American decision, we must observe the changes of recent weeks. First of all, the victory of Donald Trump, an obvious element of this strategic reversal. Donald Trump who, as a reminder, promised during his campaign to resolve the situation in Ukraine “in 24 hours“(without ever explaining how…) and whose son, Don Jr, got angry against a decision which “private [son] father of luck to establish peace“.

The fear of both Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky is that Donald Trump will impose a negotiated solution by threatening to cut off the tap of military and financial aid, which would currently result in unacceptable losses for kyiv. territorial.

With this change of course, Joe Biden offers kyiv the possibility of approaching the start of the Trump presidency in a more favorable position in the event of negotiations, which particularly concerns the Kursk region in Russia. A region occupied by the Ukrainian army since the beginning of August, but where Russia is leading a vast counter-offensive, supported by the support of North Korean troops, with a contingent estimated at 10,000 soldiers. While constituting an unprecedented threat, the irruption of North Korea into the war ruined Washington’s efforts to avoid an extension of the conflict.

Finally, Joe Biden is in a way putting Donald Trump against the wall, by forcing him to show his hand on the Ukrainian issue. Because the elected president will have no other choice, by settling into the Oval Office, than to prolong the war effort, or to publicly display a form of alignment with Moscow’s position.