In Kyiv, temperatures forecast for Monday, November 18 range from 1 to 6°C. This is the moment chosen by Russia to massively strike Ukrainian power plants: more than 120 missiles and 90 drones were fired at the same time, on the night of Saturday November 16 to Sunday November 17, killing at least eight people and leading to power cuts across the country. “This is the eighth large-scale attack this year against our power plants”said the national electricity company DTEK.
“This was Putin’s criminal response to everyone who called him recently,” the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Andriï Sybiha, raged on the social network It targeted German Chancellor Olaf Scholz who, for the first time in two years, picked up his phone on Friday, November 15, to contact the Russian president. The exchange lasted more than an hour. Olaf Scholz asked Vladimir Putin to show “willingness to begin negotiations with Ukraine with a view to a just and lasting peace”according to the German government press release.
Security guarantees for Ukraine
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky commented on this initiative with some suspicion. He said he wanted “do everything” to obtain an end to the war in his country in 2025 by “diplomatic means”. He also estimated that Vladimir Putin above all wants to break his isolation, but without conceding anything. “Sitting down, talking and agreeing on nothing is what only benefits Putin”judged the Ukrainian president.
The election of Donald Trump in the United States hastened events and could lead to upcoming negotiations. The US president-elect said he wanted a rapid resolution to the conflict. He threatens to stop all military aid to Ukraine to force it to accept talks. And this worries kyiv to the greatest extent. The country is entering its third winter of war, it lacks weapons and men, the military is slowly giving ground. Ukraine lost a fifth of its territory and 8 million inhabitants. Above all, the Ukrainians fear arriving in a weak position at the negotiating table.
However, for them, the essential thing is to obtain security guarantees, to be sure of not being subjected to another attack from Russia in a few years if they accept a freeze in the conflict. These guarantees can take different forms: access to the most modern Western weapons, the presence of a permanent Western military base, a military alliance with a group of friendly countries, or even integration into NATO. Multiple options are imaginable. But Russia does not want to hear about all this.
A Ukrainian defeat, impossible for the EU to accept
For her part, in fact, she wants to push her advantage. At the end of his meeting with Olaf Scholz, Vladimir Putin reiterated his conditions: “Potential agreements must take into account the security interests of the Russian Federation, be based on new territorial realities and, above all, address the root causes of the conflict”said the Kremlin press release reporting on the exchange. In short: Russia demands to maintain its territorial gains, wants a disarmed and neutral Ukraine, with a government favorable to Moscow. This is unrealistic after two years and eight months of war.
Moreover, for Europeans, the prospect of a defeated Ukraine remains difficult to accept. Because if the European Union allows Russia to draw new borders and decide the fate of Ukraine, it grants it the role of architect of security in Europe. Poland cannot bring itself to do so. “No one will stop Putin with phone calls”annoyed Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. During the Russian attack on Saturday evening, Poland took off its planes to make Russia understand that it will do everything to prevent it from swallowing up Ukraine.
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