The Russian “ghost” fleet must challenge the EU: “It’s a bit of a game of cat and mouse”

This fleet is one example among others of Russia’s ability to circumvent European sanctions, imposed after the start of the all-out invasion of Ukraine. In a resolution adopted this Thursday, the European Parliament calls for more targeted measures against these ships in the next rounds of European Union (EU) sanctions. For example, that all ships sailing in European waters without known insurance be systematically sanctioned. Or that all imports of Russian fossil fuels, including LNG, be banned within member states.

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Step by step

This “ghost” fleet is a new example which shows that there are flaws in the European sanctions system. “It’s inevitable because you can’t predict everything in advance. It’s a bit of a game of cat and mouse. Obviously, the country which is subject to sanctions will always try to exploit the loopholes, to circumvent them in one way or another.explains Frédéric Dopagne, Professor of international law at UCLouvain. Economic sanctions are not perfectly effective, nor are they immediately effective. The European Union is trying, as different sets of sanctions are introduced, to complete and refine their regulations by plugging the gaps. It’s a process.“

A process too slow? While the majority of sanctions were adopted almost three years ago, the Russian economy is showing resilience: the IMF also forecasts growth of around 3.2% in 2024.The Russians are clearly capable of generating hundreds of billions of dollars each year to finance their military-industrial complex.confirms the Professor. We know that they have succeeded in bringing the entire economy into line, which is now a war economy.“

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International fractures

According to Frédéric Dopagne, the war effort is “happily financed“by hydrocarbon exports, mainly to China, India and other countries in the South.”I think this is what saves the Russian economy, despite the very broad G7 sanctions.“

The impact of European sanctions is therefore limited as long as other major powers continue to import Russian oil and gas. “The European Union, on its own, is not able to take diplomatic action with these countries to try to convince them to stop. There is nothing to do, we have intrinsic limits in terms of geopolitical situation. There are fractures in the international community currently. We are either in one camp or in another.“

Political will

What can the EU put in place, in addition to sanctions? In its resolution, the European Parliament, for example, invites the G7 countries to better apply the price cap imposed on Russian oil transported by sea.

Frédéric Dopagne, for his part, puts forward the idea of ​​banning the importation of refined petroleum products into a third country. “Apparently, Russian crude oil products were refined in Türkiye. Russia therefore continues to indirectly export oil to Europe. Now, to ban it, there is a question of political will. Any restrictive measure is decided unanimously within the European Union. However, we know that Viktor Orbán [le Premier ministre hongrois, NdlR] each time makes its cinema before the adoption of a new set of sanctions. And then, we also need material and human resources to implement and control the sanctions. All this does not happen overnight, it takes time. We are progressing little by little.“

But why persist in applying sanctions against Russia, if this does not hinder its ambition to annex Ukraine? “The other objective of sanctions is symbolic. There is a desire to show important support towards kyiv.“

Frédéric Dopagne is optimistic: “All these sanctions are nevertheless unprecedented in their scale. Ultimately, the fact that Russia is trying to circumvent the sanctions by all means shows that it is not completely indifferent. There is therefore clearly an effectiveness, but perhaps not as great as that which the European Union expects.“