Michel Barnier declared that he will “probably” use 49.3 to force the adoption of the finance bill against the advice of the National Assembly in Ouest-France. A maneuver that could have been thought out in advance.
The door was already open and the Prime Minister just stepped through with one foot on the other side. Michel Barnier's recourse to article 49.3 of the Constitution to force the adoption of the bill concerning the 2025 budget is becoming more and more clear. The head of government himself admitted in an interview given to West France and published this Thursday, November 14 that he will “probably” use 49.3 to adopt the 2025 finance bill. “When I see what happened in the Assembly, it seems difficult to do otherwise in end of the discussion”, said Michel Barnier, while emphasizing that he “made the choice to let the debate take place” in the first place.
It must be said that the bill does not succeed in convincing enough people in the ranks of the hemicycle. During the examination of the first part concerning revenues, the left largely revised the government's copy by modifying the finance bill with amendments. Ultimately, the modified text was massively rejected by the right and the center during the vote on the adoption of the text. Michel Barnier himself was opposed to the modified version of the text as he indicated to our colleagues by promising a text that was “serious and responsible, not distorted as it was in the Assembly”. However, he adds to take into account “all proposals capable of creating progress, without calling into question the general balance of the finance bill” and “in particular [celles] of the four of the common base which [l]'accompany'. A rather limited compromise therefore, especially if 49.3 is considered.
Michel Barnier wants to meet the objective of making 60 billion euros in savings, thanks to a reduction in spending of 40 billion and an increase in revenues of 20 billion, even if it means going through force. But the possible use of 49.3 does not seem to be a new idea: from the opening of the debates on the 2025 budget, the members of the government placed their pawns, in particular by “discussing” the use of 49.3 in the Council of Ministers from the 23 october. An anticipation allowing the parliamentary tool to be drawn at any time, since the Prime Minister is forced to bring his government together to inform it of his wish to use the constitutional article before taking action.
A political movement with a very strategic appearance, but which “did not prejudge the Prime Minister's decision”, assured government spokesperson Maud Bregon at the microphone of France 2October 23. A speech more difficult to believe after the Prime Minister's declarations in West Francebut which was already having difficulty convincing the political class in October. “I think that Mr. Barnier has already planned to trigger 49.3, and that he is making fun of the world,” commented Jean-Philippe Tanguy, deputy of the National Rally, to theAFP.
What about the risk of a motion of censure?
The fact remains that by using 49.3, Michel Barnier exposes himself to the risk of being overthrown by a motion of censure tabled by the opposition. The chances of success of a motion of censure are real provided that the left and the far right support the text. But the Prime Minister does not want to believe this hypothesis. “The French do not want” the government to be overthrown, he believes, thereby placing the weight of possible disappointment and annoyance on the part of the French on the opposition forces.
Michel Barnier, however, seems to forget that several polls have shown the unpopularity of the finance bill: 73% of French people believe that it will not be effective for the French economy and 79% find that the text is not “fair”. socially” according to the Odoxa-Mascaret political barometer, carried out for Public Senate and the regional press at the end of October. The French were not more enthusiastic about the idea of the government using 49.3: 67% are against according to the same study, 58% according to the Elabe poll for BFM published at the end of October.
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