Ukraine, democracy… The challenges of the European Union after the election of Donald Trump

Spinning the prehistoric metaphor in Budapest, Emmanuel Macron warned: “The world is made up of herbivores and carnivores, if we decide to remain herbivores, the carnivores will win. » Echoing this, in Berlin, the candidate for federal chancellor Friedrich Merz pointed out: “From now on, the European Union can no longer shelter under the American umbrella. » This conservative, who dreams of restoring the Franco-German couple to a preeminent role, calls for action quickly and strongly. In a tweet, he urged the Union “to pursue global policy on its own, to take responsibility for its own security and to strengthen its economy.” These challenges are not new. But Trump’s re-election accelerates the timetable.

In terms of security, the most pressing question will be that of aid to kyiv. Because Donald Trump should speak with Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky even before his installation in the White House, on January 20. The president-elect, who boasted of ending the fighting “in twenty-four hours”risks reducing, if not stopping, military supplies to Ukraine. “Plus a cent”he had sworn.

Certainly, Europe already provides 50% of military deliveries to kyiv. But it will be difficult for it to replace the United States because it does not have “neither the production capacities nor the material reserves of the American army”underlines General Christophe Gomart, former director of military intelligence and LR MEP.

Especially since “some of the member states are slowing down their efforts instead of strengthening them”observes Camille Grand, of the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank and former deputy secretary general of NATO. However, we can do much better. Because military assistance to Ukraine represents barely 0.2% of the GDP of the Twenty-Seven. “It costs less to defend Ukraine now than to have to equip ourselves in the future with defense budgets that could reach the level of those of the Cold War, in the face of an ever more aggressive Russia,” explains Muriel Domenach, former French ambassador to NATO.

When it comes to ensuring its security, Europe is also far from the mark. Since 2023, all NATO allies are supposed to devote, at least, 2% of their GDP to their defense spending. Eight countries, including Spain and Italy, have not yet reached this threshold while many, like France, are barely reaching it.

But Poland mobilizes 4.1% of its GDP and, with 340,000 men, has the largest army in Europe. “A defense budget of 3% of GDP would be necessary and must be sustained over time,” underlines Camille Grand. This sharing of the financial burden between Europeans and Americans should be coupled with better representation of the former in NATO structures.

Even if the United States remains in NATO, Trump’s repeated comments have created doubts about American commitment. Would they intervene if Estonia or Lithuania were attacked? It is therefore a question for Europeans of equipping themselves with the means of their defense. Which implies the creation of European champions. Quite a bet.

Military spending, trade between the EU and the United States, currencies in the foreign exchange reserves of central banks. Credit: Challenges

“The ineffectiveness of our military apparatus is illustrated by the fact that currently the European Union has, for example, 15 types of tanks compared to only one for the United States,” notes General Christophe Gomart. Some 500 billion euros over seven years will be released by the Commission, with the idea that European money will go first and foremost to European equipment, which is far from being the case.

“Spend more, spend better, spend together, spend European”, insisted Defense Commissioner, Lithuanian Andrius Kubilius, during his hearing before the European Parliament. His position is new. It demonstrates the desire of the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to form a team committed to these security issues. Another sign: the appointment of former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas as High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

On the economic front too, Europe must emerge from inertia. Under penalty of relegation. Because the situation is critical: corseted in a straitjacket of standards, the economy of the Old Continent is stalling, left behind by those of China and the United States.

An implacable observation drawn up in the two reports delivered in the spring by Enrico Letta, who chairs the Jacques-Delors institute, then by the former president of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi. In this dark picture, the comeback of Donald Trump, herald of « America First »adds the threat of a new trade war.

Already, during his first mandate, he had imposed customs duties on steel, aluminum, wine and alcohol. A friendly joke in the face of what he promised for his second term: a rate of “60% for China” and of “10 to 20%” for Europe. “The projections are consistent, underlines economist Andreas Eisl, associate researcher at Sciences-Po Paris. They estimate the average cost for the Twenty-Seven at around 1% of GDP. And more for highly exporting economies like that of Germany, of which the United States has become the leading trading partner, ahead of China. » The serious difficulties of Volkswagen, forced to carry out a historic social plan, are the symbol of this.

President of the Internal Market Committee in the Strasbourg Parliament, the German Anna Cavazzini, however, sees reasons not to panic: “During his previous term, we got to know Trump and understood that he is always in the deal. Rather than opposing him head-on, we obtain more by negotiating. »

Will Europe have to respond with customs barriers? It wouldn’t be “the correct answer”because in the end “it is the European consumer who will pay”judge Gilles Moëc, chief economist of Axa, for whom 10% customs taxes are “completely manageable by European exporters”.

Professor at Cnam and industry specialist, Olivier Lluansi is of another opinion: “Fiscal or technical measures will be necessary to maintain on European soil production essential to our sovereignty or vital for the future, such as renewable energies. » A necessity linked, according to him, to “competitiveness differential” which will survive “reason for our values: social model, environmental ambition and ethical trade”.

What if the salvation of Europe was first found within its borders? “We need fewer exports for the growth of the European Unionis convinced the economist Carlo Altomonte (Bocconi). Trump’s arrival puts pressure on to implement the Draghi report. » Who urges the Twenty-Seven to finally complete the single market. Because fragmentation, Mario Draghi calculates, still costs 10% of European GDP.

“The absence of integration is the equivalent of a customs tariff of 40% between member countries”adds economist Jean Pisani-Ferry, professor at Sciences-Po and instigator of the French economic program in 2017. On condition of overcoming national selfishness, seven major sectors could finally be integrated. Starting with finance.

“Capital Markets Union can produce effects relatively quickly and without requiring a lot of investment”judge Jean Pisani-Ferry. Other potions prescribed by Mario Draghi to revive Europe: finally adopt a concerted industrial strategy, giving pride of place to decarbonization, reinvest massively in innovation, simplify stifling regulations.

The Trumpian shock wave imposes a third challenge on Europe: defending the democratic principles that governed its creation. The rule of law and the separation of powers are today threatened from within by populist autocrats. Bolstered by the European elections in June, they rushed to congratulate Trump.

There was the Hungarian Viktor Orban, who poses as the boss of “illiberal democracies”, but also the Italian Giorgia Meloni, who reigns over the Eurosceptic camp. Having become a privileged interlocutor of both Donald Trump and Elon Musk, she imposed an ultra-conservative turn in Italy and pushed for institutional reform which would strengthen the powers of the executive. “The democratic battle is far from won within the European Union”, worries Nicole Gnesotto, vice-president of the Jacques-Delors Institute.

Faced with the risk of every man for himself, one European is nevertheless stepping up to the plate: the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. “We have never seen such a simultaneous weakening of Paris and Berlin within the Union, observes centrist MEP Bernard Guetta. This opens up an avenue for the Commission, in particular for Ursula von der Leyen who always dreamed of being the first president of the United States of Europe. »

The 1^is December, the new Commission team takes office, entirely under the control of its leader, who ousted Thierry Breton, the very restless French commissioner. “She is beginning her second term, comments Andreas Eislso she has the experience, the networks and the influence. »

The one who was German Minister of Defense was also the first boss of the Berlaymont to put to music in 2019 the concept, then very new, of a Geopolitical Commission.

By Delphine Déchaux, Marc Semo and Sabine Syfuss-Arnaud