Will Russia abandon Algeria?

From the outset, we will answer this question with a categorical “niet”. And this, for a very simple reason: no alliance or mutual military assistance treaty exists between Russia and Algeria. At most, the two countries are linked by cooperation agreements and partnerships pompously presented as “strategic”. In fact, the two are in no way allies, as some would have us believe, but economic and commercial partners, whose points of view can converge on certain points and diverge on others.

But this does not mean that the relationship between the two countries is not likely to deteriorate significantly. All the more so as the points of divergence become more and more glaring, particularly in the Sahel region, where some are openly beginning to assert that between Algeria and Mali, Russia will have to choose. Because if you chase two hares at once, you risk catching none.

Certainly, Algeria represents the third customer of the Russian military industry, with orders representing approximately 15% of Russia’s total military exports, the equivalent of several billion dollars. But in this scheme, who is really dependent on the other? Russia will always be able to find clients, particularly within the Global South, which is increasingly seeking to escape any form of dependence on the Western world. Add to this that the war in Ukraine and the standoff with the West will lead Russia to pursue a major policy of rearmament and modernization of its army, which will greatly reduce its ability to honor orders from abroad. As for Algeria, 80% of whose weapons are Russian-made, it is impossible for it to escape such dependence. Because it does not come down to the very fact of purchasing weapons, but also concerns the need for spare parts, maintenance, training, training and delivery of ammunition.

Thus, Algeria depends entirely on Russia for its defense, but the opposite is absolutely false. Because what can Algiers offer Moscow that the latter does not already have? Gas and oil? Russia is the world’s largest producer of natural gas and the second largest in terms of oil. And the list ends there, because apart from these two raw materials, I do not see what else Algeria would produce.

Let’s return to the Sahel, and more particularly to Mali, where Russia has been helping the Malian state since 2021 to restore its territorial sovereignty in the north of the country. Since Assimi Goïta came to power, military cooperation between Moscow and Bamako has been greatly strengthened to the detriment of France, which has literally been ejected from this strategic zone. This cooperation ranges from the participation of Wagner mercenaries (renamed African Corps) in combat to the training of Malian soldiers by Russian experts, with regular arms deliveries.

However, last July, the defeat of the Malian armed forces, supported by Wagner fighters, in the battle of Tinzaouatine, was the origin of a serious diplomatic crisis between Mali and Ukraine. A crisis which ended with Bamako’s decision to break diplomatic relations with kyiv, following the exit, 48 hours after the battle, of Andriy Yusov, spokesperson for GUR, the Ukrainian military intelligence service. , who said the rebels have “received necessary information, and not only that which allowed them to carry out a successful military operation against Russian war criminals».

“Far from only affecting Malians, Algiers’ interference in Mali directly contradicts Russia’s policy in the Sahel region.”

According to the Malians, Ukrainian support goes beyond simple deliveries of strategic information, but also involves training terrorist rebels in the use of drones. However, the commune of Tinzaouatène is literally on the Algerian-Malian border, less than 9 km from the Algerian commune of In Guezzam. And it is very complicated not to see Algerian connivance, or at least a diversion of sight from the actions of the rebels in this area.

Far from only affecting Malians, Algiers’ interference in Mali is in direct contradiction with Russia’s policy in the region. In 2022, the Algerian president believed he was justified in giving strategy lessons to Russia, declaring in an interview with the French daily Le Figaro that «the money that this presence (of Wagner) costs would be better placed and more useful if it went into the development of the Sahel».

In this context, would Algeria seek to escape its dependence on Russia? Perhaps, if Algiers’ recent initiatives are to be believed, such as the signing last September of a contract with BGR group, a large American lobbying firm linked through many channels to Israel, for an amount of $720,000. But also, and above all, the announcement made a few days ago by Mohamed Arkab, Algerian Minister of Energy, concerning Algeria’s decision to cooperate with NATO to secure its energy installations. Yes, you read correctly: with NATO. And in his enthusiasm, the minister also underlined the different aspects of this cooperation which concerns “facility security, cybersecurity, transfer of advanced technologies and the opportunity to cooperate in risk management, emergency response and technical skills development through advanced training programs».

And as they say, never two without three, let’s add to this panel the visit last April to Algiers of Admiral Rob Bauer, president of the NATO Military Committee, at the invitation of the indestructible Algerian general Saïd Chengriha, to examine in depth, we are told, military cooperation between NATO and Algeria.

Will this be enough? The answer is no. But this is a strong signal of the beginning of a diplomatic and strategic turnaround in Algiers.

At the same time, after having obtained new diplomatic victories on the Western terrain, Morocco continues to strengthen its relations with the Global South, as evidenced by the participation of the Moroccan Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Bourita, in the 1st Ministerial Conference of the Russia Forum -Africa which was held a few days ago in Sochi, Russia. And to which the Polisario was not invited, which represents a strong signal sent by Moscow to Morocco.