Oil prices are no longer able to recover. The OPEC report on the outlook for global demand for black gold did not stimulate prices. Indeed, even if this organization forecasts growth in demand, it will be less significant than that forecast last month.
This Wednesday, November 13, a barrel of Brent from the North Sea is listed at $72.53. As for its American equivalent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), it is sold at $68.377 per barrel. Oil is thus going through a bad phase. Investors disappointed by China’s economic recovery plan are even more so after the publication, this Tuesday, of OPEC’s monthly report on global oil demand.
Indeed, in its report, even if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries forecasts growth in demand for black gold in 2024 and 2025, this demand will be down slightly compared to its previous estimate.
In detail, the organization’s report indicates that global demand will amount to 104.03 million barrels per day in 2024, after 102.21 in 2023. For 2025, OPEC forecasts global consumption of 105.57 million barrels per day. In its previous report, the oil cartel predicted global consumption of 104.14 mb/d. That’s a decline of 107,000 barrels per day.
Oil demand to grow less than expected last month
It must be said that this growth is mainly driven by non-OECD countries, for nearly 1.7 mb/d, primarily in China, but also in the Middle East, India and Latin America. For the year 2025, the growth in global demand for black gold is also revised slightly downward by 103,000 barrels per day compared to the last assessment, to reach 1.5 mb/d. This growth will also be driven by non-OECD countries and supported by air travel, road mobility, industry or construction, according to the OPEC report which underlines that “this minor adjustment is mainly due to the update data for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2024”.
On the supply side, crude oil production from OPEC and its allies increased by 0.21 mb/d in October month-on-month, averaging about 40.34 mb/d. Recall that at the beginning of this month, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Oman announced an extension of their oil production cuts until at the end of December. A decision which relatively slowed the collapse of oil prices.
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