CBOT wheat futures are losing nearly 1.5% today, falling to $540 ahead of tomorrow’s rollover, under pressure from a strong US dollar.
- Rain continues to feature in the seven-day forecast, with much of the Southern Plains and eastern half of the United States expected to fall between 1 and 2 inches.
- Weekly crop status data shows that as of 10/11, 91% of winter wheat was planted, with emergence of 76%, 2 and 3 points above normal.
- Condition ratings improved by 3% to 44% gd/ex and the Brugler500 index, which tracks crop condition, rose 10 points today to 326 – well above normal but not very high.
- Rains ease drought for wheat from Nebraska to Texas. According to American meteorologists, ClimatePredict suggests improving weather conditions for parts of Ukraine and for Russian wheat. The AO index is slightly decreasing today (negative correlation with precipitation, signaling possible rain in Russia).
- Current commodity projections indicate that if La Niña does not form, long-term wheat prices are likely to suffer.
Russian company Rusagrotrans predicts that the area under wheat cultivation in Russia in 2025/26 will be the lowest since the 2018/19 season, at 15.4 million hectares (38.1 million acres). However, the market is reacting to shorter-term factors, somewhat ignoring the uncertain long-term outlook for wheat. The strengthening dollar affects the CBOT, reducing global demand for “expensive” US wheat.
Speculative long positions in wheat are extremely small; short positions stopped falling. Looking at the position history, it can be assumed that the overall positioning is fairly well balanced between oversold and overbought levels. Source : XTB Research : XTB Research, Bloomberg Finance L.P., CFTC Commitment of Traders
Source: xStation5
“This content is a marketing communication within the meaning of Article 24(3) of Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 on markets in financial instruments and amending Directive 2002/ 92/EC and Directive 2011/61/EU (MiFID II) The marketing communication is not an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy. within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (Market Abuse Regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6 / EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC and Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 of the Commission of 9 March 2016 supplementing Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards regulatory technical standards relating to technical arrangements for the objective presentation of investment recommendations or ‘other information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy and for the disclosure of special interests or indications of conflicts of interest or any other advice, including in the field of investment advice, within the meaning of Article L321-1 of the Monetary and Financial Code. All information, analyzes and training provided are provided for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as advice, a recommendation, a solicitation for investment or an inducement to buy or sell financial products. XTB cannot be held responsible for the use made of it and the resulting consequences, the final investor remaining the sole decision-maker regarding the position taken on their XTB trading account. Any use of the information mentioned, and in this regard any decision taken in relation to a possible purchase or sale of CFDs, is the exclusive responsibility of the final investor. It is strictly prohibited to reproduce or distribute all or part of this information for commercial or private purposes. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and anyone acting on such information does so entirely at their own risk. CFDs are complex instruments and carry a high risk of rapid loss of capital due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You need to make sure that you understand how CFDs work and that you can afford to take the likely risk of losing your money. With the Limited Risk Account, the risk of losses is limited to the capital invested.”
-Related News :