The bearish trend in the precious metals market continues today, gold (GOLD) settling almost 1% below $2,600 per ounce today. The declines are directly attributable to the strengthening dollar, with the USDIDX index surpassing 106 today, and yields, with 10-year Treasuries gaining more than 12 basis points today, rising to the level of 4, 45%. The declines in gold are due to the extension of the “Trump Trade”. The Republican and Trump agenda is likely to increase pressure on the Fed with higher interest rates in 2025.
- Recent data, including today’s New York Fed survey, suggests an improving outlook for the health of the U.S. economy and consumers. Another aspect concerns geopolitics, where, at least in the short term, investors see more encouraging circumstances, suggesting a reduction in tensions in the Middle East or between Washington and Beijing, among others.
- Likewise, a resumption of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, at the turn of the year or at the beginning of 2025, cannot be ruled out. However, geopolitics is the general backdrop to the gold market and is not a factor in today’s sell-off. Palladium (PALLADIUM) is also losing more than 4% today; silver (SILVER) is experiencing a decline.
OR (H1 interval)
Looking at the hourly chart, we see that gold has broken the ascending channel from the bottom and is testing the levels of the second half of September.
Source: xStation5
Gold is poised to test the lower band of the medium-term price channel at $2580 per ounce; The RSI signals oversold conditions near 38, however the EMA200 is still much lower, now at 2440 USD.
Source: xStation5
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