Why Trump is raising rapeseed prices

The election of Donald Trump caused strong fluctuations in agricultural markets. The prices of rapeseed jumped by more than €20/t, exceeding €540/t. THE sunflower is also experiencing a significant rebound, while the militarydespite an initial decline, is influenced by China’s decisions. Finally, the prices of then are decreasing. The entire vegetable oil market is dynamic, notably due to palm oil.

Read also: How have grain markets reacted to Trump’s re-election?

Sharp rise in rapeseed prices

THE rapeseed price gained more than €20/t on Euronext between November 4 and 11, above €540/t for the physical market, close to this level for the Euronext contract. Same ingredients, same effects this week compared to the previous one: the election of Donald Trump like 47^e President of the United States gave a boost to rapeseed prices, notably via a sharp decline in the euro against the dollar; other elements which weighed on the market: on the one hand, operators who do not lose sight of the fact that supply is low in Europe and, on the other, a market for vegetable oils which is generally very dynamic, particularly in terms of concerns palm oil.

New rebound in sunflower prices

THE sunflower price hexagonal prices jumped this week. The market still remains fairly calm in France, with supply being rather limited. In addition, and while the harvests continue with difficulty, drying operations are very important this year (in certain regions, 100% of the volumes must be dried), which delays its release to the market.

Net increase in soybean prices

THE soybean pricefalling on the CBOT between November 4 and 11, include the new monthly publication Wasde from the USDA (Friday, November 8). For the 2024-2025 global balance sheet, production was revised down by 3.5 Mt compared to October (to 425.4 Mt compared to 428.92 Mt in October) with the revision of the US production figure down (yield which goes from 53.1 bush/acre to 51.7 bush/acre). End-of-season stocks at the global level are now seen down by 3 Mt (to 131.7 Mt). Players in this market are now waiting for China’s purchasing behavior (the country has been very present in recent months, with American and Brazilian origins). This huge importer expects significant trade sanctions (increase in customs duties) from the newly elected US president. The key is to know when and to what extent they will intervene. Palm oil remains the driving force behind the vegetable oil market dynamics, with declining supply, increasing demand and rather low stocks in producing countries.

Fall in pea prices

THE feed pea price on the French physical market fell this week, in the face of weak demand from animal feed manufacturers. Values ​​are reappearing in the port, but the departure continues to pay more than the return. Thus, activity remains sluggish in the ports.