Fuel prices – A drop that is too contained – Brief

BRIEF

Published on November 9, 2024

Never, since February 2022 and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, have fuel prices been as low as in the fall of 2024. The election of Donald Trump suggests that the exploitation of oil is not conventional by the United States, the world’s leading producer of black gold, will not slow down. Enough to predict price stability in the months to come.

However, current levels clearly exceed those observed before 2022. For example, a liter of diesel peaked at €1.40 between 2014 and 2021. It is now billed at €1.60 on average. Same observation for E10, which also increased by 20 cents over the same periods.

Margins and taxes to blame

The rise in the cost of oil is not enough to explain this phenomenon. The barrel of crude is certainly trading above the levels of the 2015-2017 period, but only at an additional 5 cents per liter! And these price orders were found in 2014 as well as between 2018 and 2021. Why has this differential quadrupled at the pump today? To understand, we have to look at the increases in margins and taxes.

On the one hand, since last year, the amount of refining, distribution and transport margins has tripled, going from 11 to 33 cents per liter of fuel. On the other hand, taxes are continually increasing under the effect of increasingly severe decisions. In particular, the internal consumption tax on energy products (TICPE) increased significantly in 2018, and the incentive tax relating to the use of renewable energy in transport (Tiruert) appeared in 2022. Adds the jump in VAT revenue, to which the overall price of fuel is subject. In the end, taxes on diesel increased from 66 to 88 euro cents per liter in 10 years (+ 33%) and those on E10, from 86 to 94 euro cents (+ 9%).

Territorial inequalities

To buy cheaper, head east or west! Brittany, devoid of motorways, and the departments bordering Germany have the lowest pump prices in France. Conversely, the bill is much higher in the departments of the Rhone corridor and in Île-de-France. Locally, from one gas station to another, pricing policies vary greatly.

France, one of the most expensive countries in Europe

At the European level, France is in the leading group of the most expensive countries alongside Germany, Greece and Italy, far ahead of Spain, Portugal and the eastern countries. Europe. But Denmark and the Netherlands are breaking records: the price per liter of fuel there has reached €2. These two nations are also those where electric cars sell 2 or 3 times better than elsewhere.