In October, exports of Norwegian pipeline gas to northwest Europe increased significantly from the previous month, marking a recovery after a significant reduction caused by an intensive maintenance schedule in September. According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, Norwegian gas deliveries reached 9.56 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in October, up from 6.4 Bcm in September. This volume also represents an increase of 5% compared to the previous year and exceeds the five-year average for the month of October, set at 9.38 Bcm.
This positive trend in exports is part of a context of strengthening Norwegian supplies in response to the reduction in Russian deliveries since 2022. Indeed, Norway has become the main gas supplier to Europe, thus filling a significant share of the deficit left by Russia. This increase in exports is also explained by high energy prices in Europe, which have encouraged Norwegian producers to maintain high production levels.
A gas market under pressure
Cumulative exports since the start of the year remain strong, with a total of 93.2 Bcm between January and October, an increase of 10% compared to the same period in 2022. According to the Norwegian Petroleum Resources Directorate, this year could nevertheless be marked by a stabilization of volumes, with production levels having reached their peak in 2022.
Torgrim Reitan, the financial director of Equinor, Norway’s main player in the energy sector, however warned that the European gas market remained in a “vulnerable” situation. Despite well-filled stocks ahead of winter, external factors such as demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia and uncertainty around the gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine, set to expire at the end of year, could affect market stability.
Potential impact of winter on prices
Reitan also highlighted the importance of upcoming weather conditions, recalling that the winter of 2023-2024 could play a crucial role on prices. A harsher winter could in fact reduce gas reserves more quickly than a temperate season, which would put pressure on prices. According to estimates, gas stocks at 40% in April would be expected in the case of a normal winter, compared to 60% this year after a mild winter.
This uncertainty in the winter outlook shows Norway’s strategic importance in securing gas supplies for Europe, particularly in the face of geopolitical tensions and energy market volatility. Norwegian producers therefore remain mobilized to meet demand while monitoring market developments which could redefine prices and the stability of supplies.
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