What conclusions can be drawn from the State visit of President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron au Morocco from October 28 to 30, 2024 at Rabatat the invitation of the king Mohammed VI ? According to Yann Lebeau, head of mission Maghreb-Africa within Intercéales, whose office is based in Casablanca, “Good political understanding is always positive for trade, particularly for cereals ». However, “On a purely cereal commercial level, this visit does not change much. The agreements signed between French Arvalis and Intercéales on one side, and the Moroccan OCP Nutricrops, the world’s leading exporter of phosphate, and the Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P) on the other, essentially aim to develop French and Moroccan production techniques of grains », he adds.
“Good political understanding is always positive for exchanges, particularly for cereals ». However, “on a purely cereal commercial level, this visit does not change much”, declares Yann Lebeau.
Read also: Why should Morocco still import a lot of cereals in 2024/2025?
Bad relations but… Moroccan purchases of French wheat
The Intercéales expert recalls that Morocco is the leading buyer of milling wheat hexagonal since 2022, when relations between the two countries were still considered fresh. “Despite the political disagreements of the time, business continued between the two nations. Of course, it is always better to get along diplomatically speaking, but there is no particular inter-State agreement on grain exchanges during the visit of the President of the French Republic to Rabat, because it is the work of private operators”, testifies Yann Lebeau.
French wheat boycotted by Algeria for political reasons
Proof, however, that it is better not to get too upset on a geopolitical level with your clients: Algeriaon bad terms with France. This is due to the recent support of the French government for the Moroccan solution regarding the Sahara occidental. The country, which obtains wheat via the Algerian Interprofessional Cereals Office (OAIC) - a state body – boycotted French origins during its latest purchases.
What Morocco has not done, which buys via private operators. The country imported around 3 Mt of French wheat two years ago, and 2.5 Mt last year, recalls Yann Lebeau. To summarize, if France wants to continue exporting to Morocco, it will have to be competitive, with quality, regardless of the state of diplomatic relations.
Moroccan millers happy with French wheat
And it turns out that this year, the quality satisfied Moroccan buyers. “The local millers are very happy with it. Wheat gives good flours and good painsthanks to the excellent quality of the protein”, rejoices Yann Lebeau. Of course, the specific weight remains the weak point in 2024. But this did not prevent France from continuing its exports to the former Shereef kingdom. “We shipped 450,000 t of the 2023 harvest there last summer. Then, during the October-November period, we began to export the 2024 harvest. According to the market, 200,000 t have already been negotiated for this destination”he specifies. All this took place before Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Morocco.
Russian wheat less present in Morocco?
Other good news: Russian competition is currently diminishing. “The Russians exported at the start of the 2024-2025 commercial campaign, but since then, the pace has declined. Moroccans hardly appreciated the increase in Russian export taxes, but also and above all the exclusion of non-Russian traders from exporting Russian wheat, as well as the ban applied by local authorities on going through intermediaries to export Russian goods », points out Yann Lebeau.
Less than 1.5 Mt of French wheat to Morocco in 2024-2025?
For the entire 2024-2025 commercial campaign, “Unfortunately, in France, we do not have as much volume as usual. While Moroccan needs are estimated at 4.5 Mt-5 Mt annually, we would be happy to place 1.5 Mt there. », deplores Yann Lebeau.
All these elements are independent of Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to the former Cherifian kingdom. On the other hand, it made it possible to conclude partnerships to develop cereal production in both countries. “Basically, it is about ensuring that the Moroccans export us phosphate fertilizers that are more suited to our needs, because our soils have lost their phosphorus reserves in recent years. It will also involve developing adapted seeds and cultivation techniques, making it possible to produce in conditions of increased water deficit due to climate changewhich will be beneficial for both France and Morocco ».
More French wheat produced, and of quality, could mean more wheat exported to Morocco in the years to come. What the signing of the France-Morocco partnership would indirectly promote. As long as you are competitive. Poor diplomatic relations are likely to penalize trade between nations. But good ones don’t guarantee anything either.
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