Ukraine, trade war… Europeans are preparing for the return of the “Trump show”

It is first of all on Ukraine that relations risk becoming strained between the two continents. Trump has continued to express his skepticism about American support for this war (more than 100 billion dollars in three years), and his promise to “resolve the problem in 24 hours” suggests an end to the conflict under conditions imposed by Moscow. Present at the Budapest summit, Volodymyr Zelensky began to show his concern, considering any concession to Putin “suicidal” for Europe. He urged Americans and Europeans to be « forts » and to “value” their relationship. Atmosphere… Europe, just like Biden's United States, has certainly worked hard in recent months to try to secure aid to Ukraine as much as possible, but without illusion: if Trump lets go of Zelensky, Europe will have all the difficulty in carrying out alone a war effort whose burden would double.

The second shock will be economic, it will not take long. Trump has promised to impose 10% tariffs on imports from all countries (60% for those from China). He has also repeatedly warned that he would impose tariffs of 200% or more on vehicles imported from Mexico, and possibly Asia and Europe, announcing at the same time that he would tackle from day one to tax breaks and other measures in favor of electric vehicles. Problem for the European Union: its exports of electric cars have increased from 2% of the total number of cars exported in 2017 to 27% in 2023, and the United States is one of its main customers.

German industry, the most threatened, is flirting with panic. Trump's victory so disturbed the BDI (Federation of German Industries) that it issued a statement attributed to “BDI President Donald Trump”. But the Europeans will not be taken by surprise: “If the US imposes unjustified tariffs on EU products, we are prepared for this and will respondindicates to the Politico site Bernd Lange, member of the European Parliament and president of its International Trade Commission. If Mr. Trump moves forward with the gimmicky tariffs he announced, we will bring him back to reality and fight back. »

Same firmness displayed regarding NATO, but coupled with strong concern. Most member states now spend more than 2% of their GDP on defense, a major demand of Trump during his first presidency. This should not be enough to mollify this nationalist for whom multilateralism is a dirty word. Will he go so far as to leave the organization, as he has often threatened to do? Too early to tell. But last March, he promised to “fundamentally reassess NATO’s purpose and mission”. Vague threats, coming from such an impulsive person, are sometimes the creepiest.