Will Donald Trump’s return to power benefit Israel’s military objectives?

For the Israeli Prime Minister, Donald Trump’s return to power promises above all the return of a certain freedom of political movement. From the point of view, firstly, of the Israeli policy of progressive annexation of the Palestinian territories, led by the far-right sovereignist ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, who came to power in 2023. During his previous mandate in the White House (2017-2021), the former businessman had already recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, despite international law, as well as the sovereignty of the Hebrew state over the Golan Heights, taken to Syria in 1967.

Towards the end of the war in Gaza?

The victory of the Republican camp – whose candidate urged Benjamin Netanyahu to “finish the job” in Gaza during his campaign – will undoubtedly allow Israel to continue its bombings in the north of the enclave without diplomatic condemnation from its American ally. This new takeover of power, effective in January, presages a new dark period for the Palestinians and their Arab allies, to whom candidate Kamala Harris held out – without announcing extensive measures – a reflection on the fate reserved for the citizens of the Gaza Strip and occupied West Bank.

The possibility of a peace agreement with Hamas in Gaza is also fading. Through the dismissal of Yoav Gallant, former Minister of Defense, on November 5, the Israeli Prime Minister closed for another time the page on the negotiations initiated by the Democratic Biden-Harris administration in favor of the release of the hostages kidnapped by the Islamist organization on October 7, 2023. According to the Times of Israel newspaper, at the end of October, Donald Trump would have demanded from Benjamin Netanyahu an end to the war in Gaza.before his return to power if he won the election”.

In bombed eastern Lebanon, a detail marks: “This is the main difference with the 2006 war, and what puts Hezbollah in danger”

This would then mean, supposes Denis Charbit, Israeli political scientist and author of the book Israel, the impossible normal state (2024, Calmann-Lévy editions), a potential negotiation effort within a few weeks. Even if, he concedes, the unpredictable nature of Donald Trump makes any projection difficult. “The only issue likely to move forward in the current war is the conflict in Lebanon, analyzes the researcher. The chances of reaching an agreement are greater because Hezbollah is weakened, and more than 70,000 Israelis are still displaced from their homes. For the outgoing Biden administration, a ceasefire in Lebanon would be a possible exit.”

The ghost of the Abraham Accords

Still according to Denis Charbit, Donald Trump today intends to limit the United States’ commitments abroad, “which does not mean that he will not use force if it is useful to him”he specifies, in order to maintain his isolationist policy. It is therefore unlikely to see the American envelope of support for Israel increase. “Even before Trump, Democrats were more generous than Republicans in their military aid to Israelrecalls the politician. Barack Obama offset the Iran deal with money during his term. Trump might not have this compensatory reflex.” Paradoxically, the Republicans could therefore be more stingy in their aid to Israel compared to the outgoing Democrats, who are more demanding from a diplomatic point of view.

In Jerusalem, security is on everyone’s lips: “Here, we are all for Trump”

Final question raised by the return of the Republican candidate to power: the future of the Abraham Accords (signed in September 2020), a set of treaties initiated by the Trump administration aimed at pacifying relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors. In exchange for recognition of the State of Israel, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates had, for example, received recognition of its sovereignty over the Eastern Sahara, for example, and a squadron of fighter bombers and a squadron of military aid. On the eve of October 7 and the deadly Hamas attack, Saudi Arabia in turn seemed inclined to normalize its relations with Israel through diplomatic representation in Ramallah, in the occupied West Bank. “Since the start of the Gaza war, Saudi Arabia has been determined to demand a much heavier price from Israelconsider Denis Charbit. The question is what Trump is willing to concede, and what concessions Benjamin Netanyahu is willing to make..

The weight of the 43,391 Palestinian deaths recorded in more than a year of war by the latest report from the Gaza Health Ministry, controlled by Hamas, is today changing the situation for the administration initiating these agreements. If Donald Trump wanted to expand the list of signatories by virtue of reinforced security for his Israeli ally in the region, avoiding the Palestinian question would then be a balancing act. And Denis Charbit concludes: “Even if Palestinian demands are by no means guaranteed, they are now more part of the picture.”.