In summary
Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election in the United States, increasing his scores from 2016 and 2020.
It is growing in every state except Maine.
Certain groups, such as Hispanics/Latinos, 18-29 year olds or Catholics voted more for him than in previous elections.
Those who have encountered Donald Trump in real life have been marked – in particular – by his build and the energy he exudes. It takes strength and energy to participate in three American presidential elections and win two.
Donald Trump's success in 2024 is the broadest he has ever known. If the final scores have not yet been established, the provisional results and the exit poll carried out by the Edison Research institute allow us to draw the first lessons from these very special elections. And, above all, to see how the Republican candidate constructed this victory.
Read also: Who voted for Trump? Who voted for Harris?
Four states taken from the Democrats
Geographically, first of all, Donald Trump took four states from the Democrats compared to 2020: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin. The latter total 45 electors, exactly the number of electors Kamala Harris lacks to reach the threshold of 270, synonymous with victory.
The results from Nevada and Arizona are not yet known, but they are also expected to go to Trump. He would then have won the nine historic swing states, although Ohio and Florida, largely favoring the Republican candidate, were not considered swing states this year. In 2016, he obtained 8 out of 9, a record since 1988:
In progress (almost) everywhere
In addition to winning all key states, the president-elect also improved his score compared to 2016 and 2020 in almost every state.
While waiting for Arizona and Nevada, it is progressing in 48 states and declining in only one (Maine). In New York, he gains 8 points from 2016 to 2024 (from 36.6 to 44.6%):
Women, young people
At each election, Edison Research surveys 100,000 voters at the polls to ask them who they voted for, in order to collect socio-demographic information (age, ethnicity, religion, etc.) and the motivations for voting.
The results of the 2024 survey show that Donald Trump managed to win votes in certain voter pools.
Traditionally, Donald Trump's electorate is predominantly male. Women mostly vote for the Democratic candidate. Is this the result of a softening of his speech? Despite the escapades, the misogynistic or gritty outings and the Stormy Daniels affair, Donald Trump gains two points in the female electorate in 2024, although he remains in the minority:
The base of Donald Trump's electorate is aged 45 to 64. In this age group, the Republican received 53% of the votes. Its popularity is declining a little among seniors (over 65), but is increasing significantly among young people. From 37% of the vote in 2016 among 18-29 year olds, Donald Trump rose to 42%.
Read also: Victory of Donald Trump: here are the four dates to remember until the inauguration of the future president
Hispanic/Latino and Catholic
The United States uses statistics based on ethnic origin. The latter show significant differences depending on the groups. African-Americans reject Donald Trump, who only obtained 8% of their vote in 2016. Always rejected, however, since 2020 he has increased to 12%.
The most considerable variation is to be noted in the group of Hispanics/Latinos, where Trump achieves 13 points more between 2020 and 2024, and even 16 points compared to 2016. Despite controversial remarks about Puerto Rico at the end of October…
Donald Trump also managed to gain votes from certain religious groups. The Republicans imposed issues related to religious beliefs on the political landscape, notably the right to abortion which was the subject of local votes.
Compared to 2016, Donald Trump gained 4 points among Protestants and other Christians, where he was already in the majority, going from 58 to 62%. Among Catholics, Donald Trump experienced a decline in 2020, going from 52 to 47% of the vote. This year it rose to 56%, an increase of 9 points.
This Thursday, November 7, the vote count continues in the United States. Donald Trump's large victory is assured because he won the sufficient number of voters, but the president-elect could even have an additional bonus. He is in fact still able to win the popular vote. The American voting system, with the rule of winner takes all which implies that the winner of a state wins all of its electors, meaning that the winner can total fewer votes than the loser.
In 2016, Donald Trump won with fewer votes than Hillary Clinton. This year, he could also, for the first time, win the popular vote.
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