After two very difficult years, the South-West Real Estate Observatory sees a slight improvement in real estate development. “Despite very low volumes, comparable to what was happening in the 2000s, we are seeing a rebound in sales”announces Christophe Duportal, the president of Oiso, regarding the figures for new housing for the third quarter of 2024.
Construction site delays and business failures: new housing laminated in Gironde
+ 23% in sales of new homes in the metropolis
In Gironde, sales are up 12% compared to the same period in 2023, driven by investors. “This enthusiasm is undoubtedly explained by the end of Pinel, this flagship rental investment scheme in France which will disappear at the end of 2024”comments Christophe Duportal. The activity is also driven by the Bordeaux metropolis and the Arcachon basin. Bordeaux Métropole saw sales increase by 23% while Arcachon Bay was up 9%.
On the other hand, sales are still declining across Gironde: -14% over the first nine months of the year compared to 2023. Over three years, sales have fallen by 50%. on a Gironde scale, going from 970 lots in the third quarter of 2021 to 486 in the third quarter of 2024. Another significant and worrying fact for Christophe Duportal: 825 lots were withdrawn marketing or canceled between 2024 and 2023, an increase of 30%.
New housing: five figures to measure the collapse of the market in Bordeaux
“Nationally, Bordeaux and Toulouse are both doing well in terms of sales, while Lyon (-43%) and Montpellier (-45%) are collapsing. The restart may be due to a price adjustment”says Christophe Duportal. Price-wise, the metropolis and the city center remain below the 5,000 euros per m2 mark. If the observatory notes a slight increase in prices between the second and third quarter of 2024, it is indeed a price drop of 4% that the metropolis has recorded for nine months. Will this thinning consolidate? “It is impossible for us to say at this moment”answers Christophe Duportal.
The recovery of real estate loans has stalled
The building land market is sinking into crisis
This is all seen on the other hand in terms of building land where “it is rather the storm, the flood”, says Guillaume Seguy, vice-president of the observatory: “Month after month, the building land market is sinking a little deeper into the crisis across the entire Nouvelle-Aquitaine region. » Over a rolling year, sales fell by -22% with 558 lots. Sales are also down, -41% over a year with only 398 sold. In two years, sales have simply been halved.
“The stock is therefore very high”explains Guillaume Seguy. The commercial offer increases by 8.5% with more than 2,400 lots currently for sale. “It now takes three years and eight months to sell off the entire supply and half of the available supply has been on the market for at least two years! » In the first quarter of 2024, 121 purchasing projects were also abandoned. By zooming in, the Gironde market is no longer at the top of sales. Its activity is even collapsing with 86 sales or -67% this half-year.
La solution ? “A drop in rates but let’s not kid ourselves, they will not go back down to 2%. The only hope could be the relaunch of the zero-rate loan for individual homes. Another option: offer smaller lots,” sketch Guillaume Seguy.
The new real estate crisis continues
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