“Paphos” vs “Astana”: Match preview and predictions

Thursday 07th November 2024 09:50 AM

UEFA Conference League. Group stage. Day 2. November 7. Limassol. “Apollo Arena”. 7:45 p.m.

“Paphos” (Cyprus) against “Astana” (Kazakhstan)

Where to watch: MEGOGO, Volia TV, “QazSport HD”, DAZN

The leader of the Cypriot championship and one of the contenders of Kazakh football both have three points after their first two matches. The only difference is in the goals scored and conceded, as “Paphos” suffered a defeat against a representative of the Bundesliga, while “Astana” was rather inadvertently dominated by the Welsh team “New Saints” in Shrewsbury, taking into account the respective statuses of the teams. It was the first victory for a Welsh team in the group stages of European competitions. However, there is a downside: in England, the Kazakhs fielded mainly substitutes, and in Limassol, they are likely to also field a team of substitutes. This is explained by the fact that this Sunday, Grigory Babayan’s men still have a chance to win another championship in the Kazakh Premier League if they beat “Zhetysu” in Taldykorgan, while their rival “Kairat” loses points in Atyrau. Therefore, the nominal hosts in Limassol logically seem to be the clear favorites in this encounter.

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“Paphos”

In the new season of the Cypriot championship, “Paphos” started almost impeccably: eight victories in nine matches plus a draw against “Aris”, which currently occupies second place in the standings (there is already a gap of 5 points, just to let you know). The key to the success of the team, led by 51-year-old Spaniard Juan Carlos Carcedo, whose experience includes periods at “Paris Saint-Germain” and London’s “Arsenal” as assistant manager ‘Unai Emery, is that the workforce is made up of 80% foreigners. Out of 28 players, 24 are Brazilians, Argentines, Spaniards and Italians, with some representatives from the Balkans, Scandinavian and African countries, some of whom hold dual nationality to simplify visa matters or play for less high-profile national teams (such as Joao Correia, born and raised in Setúbal, Portugal, who represents Cape Verde). Although the current version of “Paphos” is by far the best in Cyprus in terms of quality of play (for example, their goal difference amounts to 25:5), it is not only about the composition of the workforce.

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Detailing the team’s success in the national championship is not necessary; what’s more interesting is how “Paphos” narrowly lost to German team “Heidenheim” in their last Conference League match, showing that they competed with the Bundesliga team on all aspects. If the Cypriot Brazilians had converted their chances (there were certainly two or three good chances), “Paphos” could have comfortably secured a draw. Earlier, on the first day, Carcedo’s men annihilated the Moldovan team “Petrocub” (who failed to score a single goal in two matches against the reigning KPL champions, “Ordabasy”) Shymkent) by scoring four goals in Chisinau, potentially even more. Perhaps the Cypriots have reserved their attacking flair for the ‘Astana’ substitutes, in case the execution is not up to par. By the way, on the last day of the national league, the modest “Omonia Aradippou” conceded four goals (three of them in the first 30 minutes) from Carcedo’s team, which even made a few rotations. This was to ensure that we showed up against “Astana” fully prepared and, given the format of the competition and the importance of a good goal difference, attempt to score at least three or four goals.

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“Astana”

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There was a time when the Astana team sacrificed its Champions League group stage match in favor of a championship clash with “Kairat” (October 2015, conceding four goals against “Atletico” in Madrid, with Denis Dedeshko scoring an own goal in the penultimate minute of this team, only super veteran Abzal Beisebekov remains in “Astana”). At the time, the gamble paid off, but now the situation is different: Kazakhstan’s tight match schedule complicates logistics: due to financial problems, the club lacks charter flights. For both Shrewsbury and Limassol, the Astana team had to make stopovers, spending around a day traveling, while having to play three matches in seven to eight days (due to previous delays). Therefore, Grigory Babayan must regularly adapt his composition. It is interesting that even the reserves of “Astana” could have at least avoided the defeat against “New Saints”: from the very beginning of the match, Karimov hit the left post from outside the area, and towards the Half an hour, Akhanov almost found the upper corner of the goal from the left side of the penalty area (the frame saved the Welsh when the score was 1:0). In fact, Nnamdi, with a touch of luck, could also have scored a brace, not to mention the missed chances by Basmanov and Astanov. However, the physical decline among the substitutes (with only Nuraly Jaksilik available to keep up the pace) became evident in the second half, leading to the Welsh team’s second goal in the final fifteen minutes of play.

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In general, the idea of the “Astana” management was that if they could get a draw in England, with four points in their pocket, they could sacrifice the match against “Paphos” in favor of the KPL championship— unless external circumstances dictate otherwise. But here, too, the Kazakhs were both lucky and unlucky at the same time—although the main team was able to rest, they had to face three matches in eight days. If “Kairat” had lost points at home against “Ordabasy” in their “southern” derby, “Astana” theoretically could have played with substitutes against “Tobol” and fielded their best team in Limassol. However, “Kairat” won a late victory, and then the tired Astana team could not carry the weight. After a confident victory over “Aktobe” (2:0) in Almaty on natural grass, and a controversial victory over “Atyrau” on a mediocre artificial pitch (3:2, with two penalties, the winning penalty in the 102nd minute, accompanied post-final whistle chaos that led to a scandal and resulted in the suspension of Grigory Babayan for the last two KPL matches for hitting a player “naftovik”), they narrowly lost to “Tobol” in Kostanay. As a result, “Kairat” took a lead, and on the final day, the Almaty team plays in Atyrau—where the hosts could take a slight revenge on “Astana” by fielding a less optimal team since the “naftoviks” have nothing left to gain.

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Could Grigory Babayan have fielded his substitutes in the match against “Tobol”, for example, to simply avoid defeat—and in this case, the fate of the championship in Kazakhstan could theoretically be decided in a “golden match” ( which would be beneficial for “Astana” to maintain match pace, as the KPL season ends while they have three more matches in the Conference League, including a match against “Chelsea” in Almaty). Or field mixed teams against “Atyrau” and “Tobol” to keep things fresh. After the match in Kostanay, Babayan admitted that his players lacked emotion and movement. On the other hand, what does it change—“Paphos”, especially playing at home, appears much stronger than not only the substitutes of “Astana”, but also the main team. However, the director of “Astana”, Sayan Khamitjanov, highlighted in the club’s Instagram a key message that, despite the difficulties of the current season, the team not only achieved but even exceeded its goal—the European competitions are guaranteed for next season (the “Astana Arena” will also be reopened after renovations), the chances for the championship remain, and they can even win the League Cup—in the final of this semi-commercial tournament, they will face city rivals, “Zhenis”. In this way, Khamitjanov considerably eased the pressure on the players and the technical staff.

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The Cypriots fielded the same team in the first two Conference League matches, so it is likely that Juan Carlos Carcedo will deploy the same players against ‘Astana’. As for “Astana”, no changes are planned—they simply don’t have anyone to change, while Grigory Babayan’s formation may vary, although a configuration with three central defenders and two full-backs seems most likely (although they have already abandoned this in the KPL).

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The match scenario in Limassol is unlikely to produce any surprises—unless a player from the hosts abruptly decides to commit a red-card-worthy foul in their penalty area. Of course, “Paphos” conceded the first goal both against “Petrocub” (reacting as best they could) and against “Heidenheim”, but now Juan Carlos Carcedo plans to lead his team to score a few goals quickly and control the game calmly. Something similar to their last match in the Cypriot championship—and it is doubtful whether the reserves of “Astana” will withstand the pressure of “Paphos”. Before the match, one could bet on the hosts nominally with a handicap of “-1.5” to obtain a more decent coefficient; theoretically, one could take a slight risk by supporting the Cypriots with a handicap of “-2”, but regarding the totals—whether general or individual—they would be better evaluated live.

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