The message is cordial, Xi Jinping congratulates Donald Trump the day after his election. The Chinese president calls on the two countries to get along, but he also notes that the relationship could swing in either direction: “History has shown that China and the United States benefit from cooperation and lose from confrontation”he wrote, Thursday November 7.
This second hypothesis is on everyone’s minds in China, where they are preparing to face the Trump storm again. For months, the Republican candidate threatened to impose a 60% customs tax on the entry of all Chinese products onto American soil. In July, the bank UBS estimated that such a measure would halve the growth of the Chinese economy.
Beijing is therefore trying to understand what the billionaire wants. Will it only be a matter of commercial rebalancing with the possibility of reaching a “deal” that makes it appear to be a winner? Or an endless spiral, partly ideological, into which other contentious subjects would be thrown, such as that of the origins of Covid-19, this pandemic which the Trump camp considers cost him his re-election in 2020?
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On the other hand, if the new American president lets the United States’ alliances in the region wither, China will have everything to gain. “If it is positive, we will be positive too, but if America creates difficulties for us, we must be ready to respond back”summarizes Shen Dingli, an international relations academic based in Shanghai.
China remains more exposed than Washington
Given the candidate’s protectionist promises and the first trade war he waged against China from 2018, many anticipate a rapid deterioration in relations between the two countries. “The Chinese will try to open channels to the future Trump administration, but it will be different. There are too many liabilities on the Sino-US relationship during his first term and it is unlikely that the first trade measures, when they arrive, will just be a bluff.says Rick Waters, China director of the consulting firm Eurasia Group and, until 2023, China coordinator of the State Department.
China considers itself better armed this time, but it remains much more exposed than Washington in the event of a trade conflict: the United States imported 427 billion dollars worth of Chinese products in 2023, while China only imported 148 billion dollars. billions of American products.
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