There is an explanation for everything. Including Donald Trump's second electoral victory, despite everything he said and did in the White House during his first term as well as during the electoral campaign. Here are ten ways to understand what happened.
Published at 12:45 a.m.
Updated at 6:00 a.m.
The cost of living
In Canada, Pierre Poilievre rose to the top of the polls by repeating that the increase in the cost of living was the result of “Justinflation”. Donald Trump did not have a similar formula, but his message on this subject was extremely effective. In the eyes of tens of millions of Americans, the sharp rise in prices is attributable to the Biden-Harris administration. And the economy was at the top of voters' priorities. It is still relevant, the famous formula of an advisor to Bill Clinton to explain how the Democratic politician would triumph in the early 1990s: “ It’s the economy, stupid ! »
L’immigration
Joe Biden had promised to end Donald Trump's harshest policies towards migrants. That's what he did. And the number of migrants crossing the U.S. southern border has soared under his administration. So much so that many Americans now look favorably on the most radical solutions. In recent months, polls have shown that more than 50% of Americans are in favor of the mass deportation plan proposed by Donald Trump.
A desire for order and control
In a very effective pro-Trump ad broadcast at the end of the campaign, three women explain why they are going to vote for the Republican candidate. “I don't like him, but at least he'll keep us safe,” one said. In an uncertain world, this brutal and aggressive former president certainly reassured some voters. For a majority of Americans, the Biden-Harris administration is associated with a loss of control, columnist Brett Stephens of the New York Times. “Border control, price control, social order control, world events control. » In contrast, Donald Trump, “with his authoritarian instincts, seems to be the guy who promises to restore this lost sense of control.”
PHOTO JEENAH MOON, REUTERS
“I vote for the convicted felon,” reads this item for sale at a store in Johnstown, Pennsylvania.
The crisis of democracy
Donald Trump's authoritarian instincts would not have paid off so electorally, say, 20 or 30 years ago. In this sense, his candidacy is timely. Nearly a decade ago, political scientist Yascha Mounk reported a “collapse of attachment to democracy” on American soil. An example: less than a third of millennials consider it “of capital importance to live in a democracy”. At the same time, he pointed out that voters are “less and less willing to tolerate the rights of ethnic or religious minorities”. Holy bread for the Republican candidate.
Trust goes out the window
The more trust in government falls, the more the candidacy of a candidate like Donald Trump rises. It makes sense! As soon as he entered politics, he took great pleasure in demonizing politicians and promising to “drain the swamp” in Washington. A profitable recipe at a time when confidence is disappearing like never before. According to the Gallup polling firm, only 24% of Americans have a lot of confidence in the presidency and a meager 9% in the US Congress. And voters disillusioned with the “political establishment” these days are very fond of politicians who tell them to “go fuck themselves,” American essayist John Ganz recently summed up.
A disillusioned working class
Some Democrats have long criticized their party for no longer caring enough about the fate of the white working class. They are right. The impoverishment of these Americans over the past several decades has been rigorously documented. Among other things, we point out inequalities, of course, but also the relocation of jobs to countries where salaries are significantly lower. The fact that Donald Trump sharply criticizes globalization and free trade agreements, unlike his Republican predecessors, has always been a guarantee of success for him. The new tariffs he promises will possibly fuel inflation, but for now, they please a majority of Americans.
Media deconsolidation
We still underestimate the impact of the upheavals of the ongoing revolution in the field of communications. Donald Trump's popularity has been boosted in particular by an influential conservative media ecosystem, at the heart of which is the Fox News network. It is now a propaganda machine at the service of the Republicans. Let us also not underestimate the impact of social networks (like X, owned by Elon Musk), whose algorithms promote polarization, anger and intolerance. The deconsolidation of the traditional media ecosystem also makes disinformation easier, which benefits a compulsive liar like Donald Trump. Finally, let's not forget this year the boost given by the host of the most popular podcast in the United States, Joe Rogan, whose recent three-hour interview with the Republican candidate was seen and heard by dozens of people. million times.
The unpopularity of Joe Biden
Joe Biden's job satisfaction rating was so low (41% in October) that he probably would not have won re-election if he had remained in the race, even without his disastrous performance in the presidential debate . Imagine: two out of three Americans said they believed, at the end of September, that the country was going in the wrong direction! Kamala Harris dragged Joe Biden's unpopularity like a ball and chain. To the great joy of Donald Trump.
PHOTO DAVID J. PHILLIP, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Vice President Kamala Harris walks off stage with her husband Doug Emhoff after giving her defeat speech at Howard University on Wednesday.
Kamala Harris' performance
Donald Trump's resounding victory was facilitated by the weakness of Kamala Harris. It's not Barack Obama who wants. She had neither the verbal address nor the mastery of the issues which allowed the former president to be elected twice to the White House (the best example: his honest performance, but nothing more, two weeks during a meeting with Pennsylvania voters organized by CNN). It's not just his fault. If Joe Biden had announced his departure earlier, she would have had more time to improve. Another fundamental question will need to be analyzed: how many voters voted for Trump because they couldn't bring themselves to vote for a black woman?
The talents of Donald Trump
Let's give back to Caesar what belongs to Caesar, it takes a certain talent to return to victory in such a spectacular way with such a terrible record (both what he has been able to do and what he has been able to say since 2015). To understand the Republican candidate's modus operandi, we must analyze his admiration for… Sylvester Stallone. “He knows what the public wants and he gives it to them,” Donald Trump has already said about the famous actor. He himself believes that he has “this type of instinct”. After his clear triumph, how can we not prove him right?
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