Moscow continues its promotion of a “multipolar world”

The Kremlin intends to provide, Saturday November 9 and Sunday November 10, a new illustration of “multipolar world” which he wants to promote in his face-to-face meeting with Westerners, during a ministerial conference on the Russia-Africa partnership in Sochi, on the shores of the Black Sea. Senior officials from around fifty countries, according to the organizers, are to take part in this meeting.

It comes after the Brics summit in October in Kazan (Russia), where President Vladimir Putin wanted to demonstrate the failure of the policy of isolation and sanctions initiated against his country by Western states after the Russian assault in Ukraine in February 2022.

For several years, Russia, which was a key player in Africa during the Soviet era, has been pushing its pawns into African countries, which have not been convinced by the West to join its sanctions against Moscow.

Military and informational influence

Russian mercenary groups like Wagner, or its successor Africa Corps, support local powers, and “advisers”according to Moscow, officiate with African officials. This is particularly the case in the Central African Republic and, above all, in the Sahel countries, where the growing influence of Russia has been accompanied by the meteoric decline of that of France.

In 2023, Russia delivered more than $5 billion (4.6 billion euros) worth of arms to the African continent, according to the Russian public company Rosoboronexport. And its large groups are closely interested in African raw materials: Alrosa in Angola and Zimbabwe (diamonds); Lukoil in Nigeria, Ghana, Cameroon and the Republic of Congo (oil); Rusal in Guinea (bauxite)…

Alongside a strategy of informational influence, particularly on social networks, Moscow is continuing the development of its network of cultural centers, the Russian Houses, with six openings announced in September, in Guinea, Somalia, the Central African Republic and the Chad.

Responsible, according to Moscow, for promoting Russian culture and language in Africa, their real purpose is to “spread Kremlin narratives on international events”estimates researcher Ivan Klyszcz, from the International Center for Defense and Security, in Estonia.

The rhetoric of the organizers of the Russia-Africa conference in Sochi, against “neocolonialism” or “the common struggle against Western propaganda”finds resonance with some African leaders. According to Russian political analyst Konstantin Kalachev, many appreciate “those who can resist and give a punch to the Westerners”and see Vladimir Putin as « well capable » to play this role.

But for Bakary Sambé, director of the Timbuktu Institute in Dakar, one question remains: “Would Russia have the same interest in Africa if the war in Ukraine ended?” » Is she a “real strategic priority”or a temporary interest linked to its standoff with NATO?

“Opinion is starting to disconnect”

At the start of the 2022 offensive against kyiv, when Russia imposed a blockade on Ukrainian grain in the Black Sea, several African countries were sensitive to Moscow's arguments, which held the West responsible for the risks of famine, attributed to sanctions.

During the first eight months of 2024, Russia exported 14.8 million tons of wheat to twenty-five African countries, or 14.4% more compared to the same period last year, according to official statistics . But, according to Bakary Sambé, “public opinion is starting to disconnect from this narrative around Ukraine, especially since Africa has found ways of resilience in the face of the fear of a food and cereal crisis”.

Furthermore, maintaining a partnership and wishing to develop economic relations with Russia does not mean absolutely wanting to break ties with the West, as shown by Egypt, which remains a key strategic ally of Washington.

The nature of ties with Russia has also sparked controversy in South Africa, another African giant with historic close relations with Moscow. When President Cyril Ramaphosa described Russia as a“dear ally” and“precious friend”his party's partner in government, the African National Congress, sharply contradicted him: the Democratic Alliance assured on October 23 that it did not consider “not Russia, or Vladimir Putin, as an ally of our nation”.