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London (awp/afp) – Oil prices oscillate on Wednesday, after Donald Trump's victory in the American presidential election, penalized by the spectacular rise in the dollar on one side, and supported by geopolitical uncertainty on the other .
Around 5:00 p.m. GMT (6:00 p.m. CET), the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in January, lost 0.40%, to $75.23.
Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery in December, fell 0.15% to $71.88.
Several contrary effects are at work with the return of Donald Trump to the White House, and “there is great uncertainty about the effects to expect from this election”, Ole Hvalbye of SEB explains to AFP.
The analyst believes that the heavy drop in black gold prices at the start of the day, which has since eased, was linked to an “excessive reaction” of the market to the surge in the greenback.
A strong dollar automatically makes oil more expensive for other currencies, because crude is traded in dollars.
In addition, traders on the oil market anticipate “the pressure exerted by the future Trump administration on China”, John Plassard of Mirabaud told AFP.
A trade war with China, the leading importer of black gold, could worsen the slowdown in demand for oil from this country which has already been weighing down prices for several months.
During his campaign, Donald Trump also “promised to lower energy prices”, recalls the analyst. The Republican is a strong defender of fossil fuels and the market expects favorable conditions for American oil producers.
“An increased supply of crude means lower prices, particularly in a situation where demand growth is slowing,” says David Morrison, analyst at Trade Nation.
However, the return to power of Donald Trump is a new factor of uncertainty in the conflict in the Middle East, which raises many fears about supplies from the region.
“Under Trump, the United States could let Israel be more aggressive with Iran,” one of the ten largest oil producers, supposes Ole Hvalbye.
Moreover, the return of Donald Trump to the White House on Wednesday arouses concern in Iran, where the sanctions taken during his first term continue to weigh on the daily lives of Iranians.
New US sanctions could hamper Iranian oil exports, particularly to China.
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