The Dutch exchange TTF gas contract for the following month was last seen down EUR 1.29 at EUR 39.20/MWh on Ice Endex, while the equivalent UK NBP contract was down GBP 3.69p at GBP 99p/th, according to exchange data.
The drop was mainly weather-related, said Ulrich Weber, senior analyst at LSEG.
“I see a slightly warmer temperature forecast, combined with a stronger wind generation forecast for next week. »
Temperatures in Western Europe will be “around normal” for this time of year next week and are expected to exceed seasonal norms later in the month, according to the Swedish weather service SMHI.
Furthermore, the market does not fear a supply shortage, with EU gas storages being filled to 95% of their capacity, according to the latest data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.
As for Norwegian supplies forecast for the day, these reached a comfortable level of 335 million cubic meters (Mm3), an increase compared to the 327 Mm3 recorded on Tuesday, according to data from network manager Gassco.
Implications of the American election
The market is also wondering about the consequences of Republican candidate Donald Trump’s victory for a second term as president of the United States, the country being the main supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe.
“The immediate fundamental effect of a Trump victory is limited,” said Mr. Weber, who nevertheless believes that the outcome of the election could lead to an easing of regulations on gas production and liquefaction in the country.
“This will strengthen global supply, reinforcing the downward trend” he added, although these volumes would only enter the market “in a few years”.
“Other impacts, economic or geopolitical, are more difficult to assess,” he said.
According to a senior trader for a European energy company, the election result may have had an impact in lowering prices.
“But I think the mild weather forecast played a greater role,” he added.
Other analysts told Montel earlier this morning that Donald Trump’s presidency could lead to increased geopolitical volatility.
“If Mr. Trump dismantles NATO and lets [le président russe Vladimir] With Putin free, Eastern Europe and associated energy flows will be in danger,” said Alan Whitefield, head of research and risk management at consultancy Mitie Plan Zero.
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