American presidential election: why climate skepticism wins (again) with Trump

“The election of Trump feels like déjà vu, and that’s bad news,” deplores Gaïa Febvre, international political manager at the Climate Action Network (RAC). As the COP 29 climate opens on November 11, Trump's return to power foreshadows a major risk for the negotiations to come. Environmental issues were hardly present in the electoral campaign, whether on the side of Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, but in this matter, it was the worst that won.

“A disaster for the climate”

” It is a disaster for the climateand for the credit given by politicians to scientific speech”, laments Swann Bommier, advocacy officer at the NGO Bloom. During his first term, Donald Trump, an acknowledged climate skeptic, decided to withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement. An unprecedented decision, denied by Joe Biden the day after his election.

But Trump has made no secret of his intention to do it again. No question for the RAC, however, of « sum up the United States to its president »insists Gaïa Febvre. “We have already had Trump version 1. Federated states, cities, companies have put themselves in a position of resistance and compensation and have made it possible to say that in the United States, not everyone is climate skeptic, against climate change. Paris agreement. »

The United States, second largest emitter of GHGs

A few days before the opening of the COP29 Climate, the results of the election are nevertheless cause for concern. Negotiations will still be led by the Biden administration which, according to Swann Bommier, “claims to be in agreement with the facts and scientific recommendations – even if the policy of the last four years has been an increase in extractivist policies. »

Especially since the country is ranked as the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases globally, at 11% in 2022, behind China (29%). And, relative to the population, the United States emits twice as much CO2 as the Chinese.

The specter of the new president now hangs over COP29, explains Swann Bommier: “They will negotiate knowing that Trump has announced that he wants to leave the Paris agreement. » The outcome is therefore known, especially since the agreement has been more ambitious since COP28 in Dubai, where “ States have committed to an exit from fossil fuels. »

However, continues the advocacy officer, the negotiations would not necessarily be downward: “They can make whatever climate policy they want because they know the risk is very high that the United States will pull out. »

“A fear about the ripple effect”

« The United States has never been a good financial contributor in any case. It’s always a blocking element”also specifies Gaïa Febvre. “If they disengage from climate multilateralism, other countries will be able to come and resist, to compensate. This is what we will absolutely have to push, and scrutinize the reaction of the climate policies of the EU, China, India, etc. » With however “a fear about the ripple effect”, she adds. Some countries could be tempted to follow this disengagement, such as Argentina led by Javier Milei – another notorious climate skeptic.

However, according to Gaïa Febvre, “the United States will not be able to isolate itself indefinitely on the international scene and multilateralism linked to climate issues. We refuse to give in to defeatism for one simple reason: the climate crisis will not end with a climate skeptic in the White House.”. The fight against it, on the other hand, risks taking a serious blow.