will Donald Trump's victory shake up the war in Ukraine?

Could Donald Trump's return to power sound the death knell for the billions of dollars in American aid sent to Ukraine since 2022? The Republican always insisted during his campaign that he would “end the war in 24 hours”, without clearly speaking out in favor of a victory for kyiv. Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated him, saying he hoped for a “just peace”.

It is a scenario that was feared by many Ukrainians, that of a victory for Donald Trump in the American presidential election. The American media announced his victory this Wednesday, November 6 and the Republican candidate declared himself the winner in the morning. He has since already received congratulations from several international leaders such as Emmanuel Macron and in particular Volodymyr Zelensky.

The Ukrainian president congratulated, on the social network [son] commitment to the approach of “peace through strength”, a “principle which can concretely lead to a just peace”.

He met Donald Trump last September, presenting his “victory plan”, which he also revealed to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Last month, the Ukrainian president said he wanted a “just and rapid end to this war (…) I would like to see that no later than next year, 2025.”

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If his return to the White House worries the Ukrainians and part of the EU, it is because the billionaire's declarations during his campaign suggested, in the event of his return to power, a future decline in American support for kyiv. in his fight against the Russian invasion. Since the start of the conflict in February 2022, the United States has been the largest donor to Ukraine, with more than 60 billion euros in military aid and unwavering support shown by Joe Biden.

End of the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours”

Donald Trump, for his part, has stated on several occasions that he would “end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours”, notably assuring in May 2023 that he “knows Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky well”. The Republican has never given details of his intentions, but has never publicly wished kyiv “victory” and is regularly accused of having admiration for Vladimir Putin. As a reminder, during his debate in September against Kamala Harris, he declared: “I want the war to be settled.”

The Republican candidate has also repeatedly criticized the amount of American aid sent to kyiv. Between late 2023 and early 2024, Trump-supporting Republicans blocked US military assistance in Congress, forcing Ukrainian forces to ration shells and allowing Russia to push its advantage. Note that the new envelope finally voted in April by the American Congress is supposed to last until spring 2025.

Putin praised Trump's “sincerity” to “end the conflict”

For his part, Vladimir Putin, although he had previously affirmed his support for Kamala Harris, praised on October 24, during the Brics summit in Kazan, the “sincerity” of Donald Trump “to end the conflict in Ukraine, However, denying having spoken with him on several occasions on the telephone, Donald Trump and his team are targeting China as “the main problem of the years to come and hope that Russia will help them in this confrontation”, estimated in the columns of Libération Fyodor. Lukyanov, leader of the Valdaï Club, a circle close to the Kremlin.

Territorial concessions

But does Donald Trump really have a plan to end the conflict? It would be largely favorable to Russia, recalls AFP. This would involve demilitarizing the area currently occupied by Moscow (i.e. 20% of Ukrainian territory including the eastern region of Donbass) without kyiv regaining control. And Ukraine will have to give up joining NATO, as the Kremlin wants. A solution excluded by Volodymyr Zelensky.

Since October, the Russian army has advanced almost 500 km2 in Ukraine, the largest territorial gain in a month since March 2022 and the first weeks of the conflict, while the Ukrainian army suffers from a lack of weapons and equipment. equipment, and this while the EU is still blocking the use of their missiles on Russian territory.

Donald Trump will enjoy “very broad power”

With the reconquest of the Senate by the Republicans, in addition to the House of Representatives, Donald Trump “will have very broad power”, estimated this Wednesday on RMC Philippe Etienne, former French ambassador to the United States and diplomatic advisor to Emmanuel Macron between 2017 and 2019. “Ukraine is a subject that can be described as existential for us, with the threat of the Russian invasion,” he judged.

“Does this mean we should give up seeking transatlantic cooperation with Trump? No, of course we will have to work” with the United States. “In principle, it remains an ally. For us, it is an ally. The United States plays a role for our security and the security of our continent”, declared, very cautiously, Philippe Etienne, recalling that “Trump had , already in his first mandate, struggles with the notion of ally”. “It’s a transactional relationship, including with his allies. He has never been comfortable with NATO.”

Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz call for a “stronger” Europe

For the diplomat, the election of Donald Trump “should give an impetus to the EU. Regardless of the election of Trump, there are so many issues, we must move forward in a very voluntary manner.” French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz agreed on Wednesday “to work for a more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe” after the almost certain victory of Donald Trump in the American presidential election.

“We will work for a more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe in this new context. By cooperating with the United States and defending our interests and our values,” Emmanuel Macron wrote on X. A German government spokesperson had previously told AFP that the two men had held a telephone conversation to “coordinate closely”.