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what consequences for the continuation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

The return to the White House of Donald Trump seems to worry the Ukrainians. And for good reason, the future 47e President of the United States was less inclined to continue military and financial aid to kyiv, he at least wanted to reduce it.

And his vice-president designate, James David Vance, will go in the same direction, if he remains faithful to the remarks he made during the annual conference in Munich last February, on the sidelines of which he had also canceled a meeting with Ukrainian representatives: “We simply do not have the production capacity to sustain a ground war in Eastern Europe indefinitely. And I think it’s up to leaders to explain that to their populations. How long should this last? How much will this cost? And most importantly, how are we supposed to produce the weapons needed to support the Ukrainians?”

The one he now adores – after having notably described him as America’s Hitler – had in fact promised to “end the war in Ukraine in twenty-four hours” Which leaves Ukrainians fearing that Trump, in order to accelerate the peace process, will push his counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky to cede the territories currently occupied by Russia, thus acceding to the conditions issued by Vladimir Putin.

Before getting there, Donald Trump could also ask Ukraine to abandon its plan to join NATO or even Europe. And the links between Elon Musk, boss of Tesla and X (formerly Twitter) and fervent support of the Republican, with the master of the Kremlin would not help Ukrainian affairs. “For three years, Europeans have been telling us that Vladimir Putin is an existential threat to Europe. And for three years they didn’t react as if it were true“, further criticized JD Vance, senator from Ohio.

Former President Trump’s inexplicable and admiring relationship with Putin, as well as his unprecedented hostility toward NATO, cannot give Europe or Ukraine any confidence in its relations with Russia“, declared to the Washington Post Tom Donilon, national security advisor of the United States under the Obama administration between 2010 and 2013, affirming that the war in Ukraine “is the largest and most dangerous military conflict in Europe since World War II“.

But some Ukrainians, however, qualify this pessimism, like the former Minister of the Economy and current president of the kyiv School of Economics, Tymofiy Mylovanov. “Mr. Trump is not as bad for Ukraine as many thinkhe confided to Euronews. Whoever wins, there will be an attempt to end the war, but it will fail because Putin will deceive everyone again. The new president will eventually understand this and then we will return to strong support for Ukraine.”

This Wednesday, after Donald Trump spoke, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated him on his “impressive victory” and said he hoped that the latter would help Ukraine obtain a “just peace“. “I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach to world affairs. This is exactly the principle that can concretely bring Ukraine closer to a just peace“, he reacted.

Zelensky, who called on American Democrats and Republicans to “strong bipartisan support for Ukraine“, also recalled his “formidable“meeting with Donald Trump in New York in September.”I remember our wonderful meeting in September, during which we discussed in detail the strategic partnership between Ukraine and the United States, the victory plan and ways to stop Russian aggression against ‘Ukraine,” he wrote on X.

MM. Zelensky and Trump have a complex relationship, also due to an American political scandal dating back to 2019. Following the revelation of the content of a telephone conversation between Mr. Trump, then President of the United States, and the Ukrainian leader , the tenant of the White House found himself accused of having pressured Ukraine to open a corruption investigation targeting the son of Joe Biden, his Democratic rival. This case led to the impeachment trial against Mr. Trump, but he was ultimately acquitted by the US Senate.

There is no doubt, however, that a victory for Kamala Harris, even though the Ukrainians might have feared that she would continue the policies of Joe Biden considered too cautious, would have been more hopeful. The Democratic candidate had also seen President Zelensky six times and had refused to meet Putin without the presence of kyiv. “We support Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russian aggression“, she insisted.

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