Today, the whole world has its eyes on the United States where citizens finish voting for the next American president. Already beyond all the doubts linked to the final result, which is being played out in a pinch given the latest polls, there is however one certainty: America’s time as a democratic model is about to be over, in view of the outrages and excesses of the campaign. It is clear that with this shift in morals, Donald Trump looks more and more like Andry Rajoelina. American democracy is becoming Malagasy, and this is not to its credit.
We all remember the episode of January 6, 2021, when Donald Trump launched his supporters to attack the Capitol. This act of political thuggery, based on an unscrupulous mentality that places violence above the Constitution, caused five deaths and nearly 150 injuries, in addition to the looting that followed in this temple of American democracy. A political thug who launches his supporters into an assault on a State Palace to create martyrs: does that remind you of anything? If the presidential guard had not played its role on February 7, 2009, we know what would have happened to the Ambohitsorohitra Palace: the fate reserved for the buildings taken over by the 2009 demonstrators is well known, whether the Suprême and Citic in Behoririka, via the companies of the Tiko group, or even the premises of the Malagasy Radio and Television Office in Anosy.
In recent days, according to the international press, rumor has been circulating that Donald Trump’s supporters would be ready to set the country on fire if the result of the election did not suit them. We heard exactly the same kind of threatening rumor during the 2018 presidential election concerning the pro-Rajoelina, whose appetite for violence and lack of scruples when it comes to achieving their ends was revealed from 2009. Many people were then afraid, including in the electoral system, and preferred to grant a questionable victory to the former putschist rather than take the risk of seeing the rumor verified in reality.
Another point in common between Donald Trump and Andry Rajoelina is the lack of dignity despite their status. If the use of insults and profanity is part of the American trademark, the Malagasy remember with surprise and shame the triviality of the allusion made by Rajoelina to “pee in your pants” caused in his imagination by the fear in his karate opponents. Can we imagine for a single moment someone with the stature of a statesman such as General de Gaule, Barack Obama or Didier Ratsiraka expressing himself publicly with such scatophile vocabulary?
The luck of the United States: the solidity of its institutions
Despite his status as a billionaire and former head of state, to date, Donald Trump is officially under 34 charges, which shows his rather questionable conception of the rule of law. The same can be said of Andry Rajoelina, a proven author of a coup d’état, which also shows his questionable conception of laws and democracy. The only difference between the two is that the Malagasy has no charges because there has never been a trial against him until now. The reason is not that he is beyond reproach, far from it: just his behavior in the first quarter of 2009 is liable to countless charges, with which he himself now likes to pepper his opponents, ranging from to the security of the State, without forgetting disturbances to public order, offense to the Head of State or even incitement to mutiny.
However, in the United States, the justice system operates independently and the institutions are strong. As outgoing head of state as he was in 2020, Donald Trump was unable to succeed in his January 2021 coup despite all the powers at his disposal. His supporters who stormed the Capitol were prosecuted, and more than 900 of them were heavily sentenced. Likewise, the Rule of Law in the United States will protect citizens from arbitrary action, while in Madagascar judicial arbitrariness is a permanent mode of government, pressure and intimidation. Only the poor and those who are not on the right political side are likely to be worried by the Justice system and not benefit from impunity.
We saw how the last presidential and legislative elections took place; just as we saw in the past a gendarmerie officer inventing sponsors of homemade bombs to intimidate the legalist camp opposed to the coup d’état in 2009; just as we saw the forces of repression brutally subdue the peaceful demonstrations of the opposition; just as we saw a former minister registered red-handed in a corruption case, find himself recycled as a deputy in the presidential camp. In Anosy, a simple phone call or an envelope addressed to the right person can influence the outcome of a trial: the reports from Afrobarometer and Transparency International are unequivocal on what the Malagasy think of their judicial system. These are just a few examples among many others to illustrate how institutions allow themselves to be manipulated in our country. Should we see this as a problem of competence or corruption of our judges? The mentality of “We are in power, so we do what we want” is inherent to the country’s political culture.
Finally, the last point in common between Donald Trump and Andry Rajoelina is their capacity as excellent communicators, which allows them to hypnotize their bases despite their shortcomings, lies and incompetence on serious subjects. Trump is a television man, Rajoelina is a son of advertising coupled with a DJ background. They therefore know, each in their own way, how to seduce the crowds by playing with artifices, but which are enough for fanatics who do not think too much about the merits of what they hear. And where one has become a master in the art of fake newsthe other accumulates broken promises and pseudo-achievements. They are masters of the image, even if it is illusory or even misleading, including on the tatami. It is therefore normal that they are united by the same egocentric character and exacerbated narcissism, which makes them think that their entry into politics is the best thing that has happened to their country since at least prehistory.
Question: why will Donald Trump do everything possible to win the 2024 election? Answer: to satisfy his ego and to prevent the arms of Justice from closing on him. Likewise, the desire to prevent people from being too closely interested in the issues surrounding his mandates, whether those stolen by a coup d’état or those subsequently obtained staggeringly through the ballot boxes, are the explanations for the aggression from Rajoelina and his clan to cling to power. The only difference is that one was already extremely rich in dollars BEFORE coming to power.
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